Ukraine's recent campaign of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure has knocked out about a tenth of Russia's oil refining capacity, according to a Reuters analysis.
Since early 2025, Ukraine has launched a series of long-range drone attacks on military and industrial targets inside Russia. The Kremlin remains tight-lipped about the impact of these airstrikes, but open-source data and media reports indicate significant damage to at least eight Russian refineries, as well as a number of oil storage facilities and key logistics hubs such as pumping stations and ports used to export oil and gas. The range of targets suggests a well-planned Ukrainian campaign to methodically dismantle Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Ukraine’s bombing offensive is proving effective. Calculations by Reuters analysts, based on oil industry trading data from January to early February 2025, suggest that Ukrainian drone attacks have knocked out about 10 percent of Russia’s refining capacity. Combined with the impact of recent U.S. sanctions on the Kremlin’s shadowy fleet of oil tankers, this is expected to leave Moscow no choice but to slow oil production in the coming months.
Reports of a major disruption to Russia’s energy sector will be welcomed in Kyiv. Ukrainian officials have made no secret of their intention to target Russia’s oil and gas sector, which serves as the economic engine of Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Ukraine’s attacks began in the early months of the war, and their frequency has increased markedly in 2024. Ukraine’s air offensive against Russia’s energy sector appears to be entering a new phase of increased intensity.
Ukraine’s efforts to bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia have been hampered by restrictions on the use of Western-supplied weapons amid Kyiv’s partners’ reluctance to risk escalation. The Kremlin has played skillfully on these fears, with Putin explicitly warning in September 2024 that any attempt to lift restrictions on long-range strikes would mean NATO and Russia were “at war.”
To circumvent Western restrictions, Ukraine has prioritized domestic production of drones and long-range missiles capable of striking targets deep inside Russia. Thanks to Ukraine’s innovative defense technology sector and the country’s strong aerospace heritage from the Soviet era, progress has been rapid. In late 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky unveiled a range of new domestically produced drones and missiles with increased range and payload.
Ukrainian officials have said they aim to produce 30,000 long-range drones and 3,000 missiles this year. Some of Kyiv’s Western partners also appear to recognize the strategic importance of Ukraine’s growing long-range arsenal and are providing funding for production along with technical support. But it will be some time before Ukraine has enough long-range firepower to seriously threaten Russia’s ability to wage war.
Ukraine’s air offensive now achieves more limited goals: crippling Russia’s energy sector, stretching the Kremlin’s limited air defenses, and undermining Moscow’s efforts to protect ordinary Russians from war. Since the start of the full-scale invasion three years ago, Putin has carefully cultivated a climate of “business as usual” in Russia itself. Ukraine’s eye-catching daily strikes on refineries and storage facilities now send a powerful signal to the Russian public that the war the Kremlin unleashed in February 2022 will not be fought solely on foreign soil.
Ukraine’s expanding arsenal of domestically produced long-range weapons is especially important at a time of growing uncertainty about the future of U.S. military aid to the country. Throughout the war, Ukraine’s military has relied heavily on the United States and other Western partners for vital weapons. But now there are growing concerns in Kyiv that U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to reach a compromise peace deal with Putin could leave Ukraine isolated and vulnerable to further Russian aggression.
In the absence of credible NATO-style security guarantees, Ukraine’s leaders believe that one of the few reliable deterrents will be a proven ability to launch powerful retaliatory strikes against targets inside Russia. Zelensky’s “Victory Plan,” which he presented to Western partners in the final months of 2024, called for the delivery of long-range missiles as part of a “non-nuclear deterrence package” designed to prevent another Russian invasion. In his traditional New Year’s address, Zelensky detailed Ukraine’s many new missile models, calling them “arguments for a just peace.”
Of course, there is currently little reason to believe that Putin is interested in any kind of peace with Ukraine. On the contrary, he appears more confident of victory than ever, and seems unwilling to compromise on his original war aim: the destruction of Ukrainian statehood. However, if Ukraine can continue to escalate its current wave of attacks on Russia’s economically important but vulnerable energy sector, the Russian dictator may be forced to reconsider his invasion.
Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council's UkraineAlert service.
Source: Source
