Following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, the debate in Washington, European capitals and Kyiv has turned sharply toward the possibility of a negotiated solution to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, serious concerns remain about Trump’s long history of mixed messaging on Ukraine, leading to widespread fears that he may try to broker a Kremlin-friendly peace deal.
Ukrainian officials are aware that the current uncertainty about future international support could be seen in Moscow as a sign of weakening Western resolve. With this in mind, they are understandably keen to avoid any sign of growing discord among Ukraine’s partners. So there was considerable unease in Kyiv last week over German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s controversial decision to speak by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years.
The call itself held few surprises. Putin took the opportunity to reiterate the unwavering goals of his invasion and to stress that the terms of any potential settlement must reflect the “new territorial realities” in Ukraine. But from the Ukrainian perspective, the real story was that the conversation between Scholz and Putin took place at all.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky led the chorus of criticism, accusing Scholz of opening a “Pandora’s box” and warning that the German leader’s actions risked undermining international efforts to isolate the Russian dictator. The call was “exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time,” Zelensky said.
Other Western leaders echoed Zelensky’s concerns. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted that Putin had launched a massive bombing campaign against cities across Ukraine shortly after Scholz’s call. “Nobody will stop Putin with phone calls,” he said. “Last night’s attack, one of the biggest in this war, proved that telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support for Ukraine from the entire West.”
A host of European foreign ministers expressed similar skepticism. Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp questioned the value of the German initiative, saying Putin “only listens to the facts on the ground.” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called the call “a really strange strategy.” Meanwhile, the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, confirmed that he had no plans to call Putin and said there was little sign that the Russian leader was willing to negotiate.
Moscow's openly enthusiastic response to Scholz's call did little to allay Western concerns. Kremlin officials confirmed that the call had been initiated by the German side and said the fact that the two leaders had spoken directly was “extremely positive.”
The Kremlin’s apparent satisfaction with Scholz’s phone call came as no surprise. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began nearly three years ago, Russian officials have worked hard to demonstrate that efforts to isolate Putin on the international stage are futile.
Putin rarely engages with Western leaders anymore, but he compensates by strengthening ties with the global south while promoting his vision of a “multipolar world order.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has spent much of his time trying to win hearts and minds in Africa, while the leaders of China and India have made highly publicized visits to Moscow. This year’s BRICS summit, which Russia hosted in October, was largely focused on portraying Putin as anything but isolated.
With early elections looming in Germany, Scholz likely had domestic politics in mind when he decided to call Putin. Still, critics say the timing of his telephone diplomacy initiative could hardly have been worse.
The German leader’s call to the Kremlin came as Russian troops continue to advance in eastern Ukraine, and amid growing uncertainty in Europe about the potential political fallout from Trump’s return to the White House. In such circumstances, the West should have demonstrated its unwavering collective commitment to Ukraine. Instead, Putin’s call with Scholz reinforced the Russian ruler’s belief that he could ultimately outlast the West in Ukraine.
As the war enters what may be a critical period, Ukrainians will hope that the backlash against Scholz’s call will discourage other Western leaders from following suit. To have any chance of achieving a viable peace settlement in the coming months, Ukraine must negotiate from a position of strength. That will only be possible if the country’s Western allies can convince the Kremlin that they remain committed to supporting Ukraine. If disunity continues, Putin will have little incentive to compromise and every reason to continue fighting.
Katherine Spencer is a Program Assistant at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.
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