Ukraine risks losing partners, facing personal revenge from European politicians, and jeopardizing its path to EU membership. How Western analysts assess the consequences for Kyiv of curtailing the independence of NABU and SAPO.
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On July 22, the Verkhovna Rada passed a law that effectively subordinates the NABU and SAPO to the Prosecutor General. This was preceded by more than 70 searches by the SBU and SBI of NABU detectives, two of whom are suspected of collaborating with Russia and three of committing road accidents in 2021-2023.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed Law No. 12414 and explains the government’s actions as an attempt to get rid of “Russian influence” in anti-corruption structures. However, the heads of the NABU and SAPO say that the new law deprives them of the independence necessary to investigate top corruption.
Popular Category Money Date Yesterday “A 180-degree turn.” The Rada abolished the independence of NABU and SAPO. What does this mean for the work of anti-corruption bodies and relations with partners?
The creation of the NABU and the SAPO was one of the achievements of the Revolution of Dignity, so protests against the adopted law took place in Kyiv and other cities.
The functioning of the anti-corruption infrastructure is also fundamental for Ukraine’s European integration. EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Cos bluntly called this a step back for Ukraine on its path to EU membership.
What other international consequences can await Ukraine due to the restriction of the subjectivity of anti-corruption bodies? Forbes Ukraine has collected the assessments of seven analysts from leading think tanks in Europe and the United States.
Ukraine risks facing revenge from European leaders
The international consequences of dismantling the independence of anti-corruption structures will be long-term and currently underestimated, warns Daniel Szeligowski, Head of the Central Europe Program at
Corruption is a threat to all democracies. Supporting Ukraine’s fight for freedom is in our national interest, but actions that undermine the anti-corruption institutions are a danger to Ukraine’s ability to win the war and to integrate into Europe. https://t.co/pzjC6Sm2fs
— Bridget Brink (@AmbBridgetBrink) July 22, 2025
A blow to European integration
“Europe helped save Zelensky’s [US] relations after the Oval Office disaster. But now Kyiv has made an irreparable mistake. What does this mean for Ukraine’s accession to the EU?” asks Nigel Gould-Davies, senior analyst for Russia and Eurasia at
Seriously concerned about today’s vote in the Rada. The dismantling of key safeguards protecting NABU’s independence is a serious step back.
Independent bodies like NABU & SAPO are essential for 🇺🇦’s EU path. Rule of Law remains in the very center of EU accession negotiations.
— Marta Kos (@MartaKosEU) July 22, 2025
New financial agreements, peace talks, and internal stability are at risk
Zelensky has presented Ukraine’s European financial donors with a huge dilemma, says British economist Timothy Ash.
In peacetime, the West would have responded by withholding aid, including IMF payments, he believes. But Ukraine is currently Europe’s front line of defense, so Europeans have no choice but to continue funding Ukraine’s defense.
Aid flows will continue, even as diplomatic work continues, Ash predicts. But Ukraine needs to find an additional $16 billion by 2026, and the total amount of funding needs to be increased to $100 billion. The ongoing scandal is likely to complicate negotiations with the IMF and delay a new financial agreement that would be Putin’s first gift.
The NABU scandal will also be a PR gift to Vladimir Putin and opponents of aid to Ukraine in the West, such as Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor-Green, and Viktor Orban, writes Ash.
Another gift to Putin is the prospect of mass protests in Kyiv and other cities. “This gift will be even greater if Zelensky decides to resist or tries to disperse the demonstrators by force. Putin and his agents in Ukraine will take full advantage of this,” warns the British analyst.
Putin may also conclude that Ukrainian society is fragmented and decide to fight rather than engage in serious negotiations, he concludes.
Simply idiotic move by Zelensky – reverse the decision. https://t.co/RISv7g36R2
— Timothy Ash (@tashecon) July 23, 2025
The biggest risk is losing partners and the country
Ukraine risks losing its most important partners in defense against Russian aggression, says D’Agnieri of the Atlantic Council. Ukrainians have resisted Russia’s spread of narratives about Ukraine’s hopeless corruption for years.
“But the deliberate destruction of institutions created after the Revolution of Dignity could strengthen voices that wish Ukraine harm,” he warns.
Just two weeks ago, the Ukrainian government tried to attract Western investment at the URC conference in Rome, D’Agnieri continues. Many businesses, already hesitant, will refuse to enter a market regulated by government decrees.
Zelensky’s signing of the scandalous law will put an end to the country’s desire to join the EU and could provoke mass protests, and possibly a new Maidan, believes the author of one of the bleakest assessments, Matthias Nellis, a German political scientist and co-founder of the Deutsch-Ukrainisches Büro.
“By choosing this path, the leadership risks losing the country and, therefore, losing the war,” he warns.
The best outcome for Ukraine would be if Zelensky abandoned the law and focused on expelling Russian troops from the country, D’Agnieri is convinced.