Trump Visits Minnesota, Hoping Its Political Divide Will Put It in Play

The Trump campaign says it can broaden the electoral battlefield with a play for Minnesota, but the state has disappointed Republicans for decades.

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Donald J. Trump’s loss in Minnesota in 2016 was close enough to keep him hopeful.

In his winning run for the presidency in 2016, Donald J. Trump came tantalizingly close to taking Minnesota, falling just 1.5 percent points shy of Hillary Clinton in a state that seemingly loves to break Republican hearts.

On Friday, the former president will be back, speaking at a fund-raising dinner for the Minnesota Republican Party in St. Paul that is open only to paying guests and invited media. Whether the visit is a feint to draw Democratic dollars to the state or a true effort to expand the electoral map, only the Trump campaign knows.

But it is a moment to look at the stark divisions in a state where the urban and rural political and social gulf is particularly vast.

“Nobody lives this stronger than I do,” said Representative Angie Craig, a Democrat whose swing district, maybe the last in the state, runs from the southern edges of Minneapolis and St. Paul into rural areas southeast of the cities. “Look, I was on the ballot in 2016 when Trump first ran. He won my district, and I lost my race. We’re all going to have to work really, really hard this year.”

Minnesota has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard M. Nixon won the state in 1972. But Mr. Trump’s share of the vote actually rose from 2016, when he won 44.9 percent and Ms. Clinton took 46.4 percent, to 2020, when the former president won 45.3 percent and President Biden won 52.4 percent.

Republicans in the state insist 2024 is their year.

“Minnesotans are hard-working, blue-collar Midwesterners, and they are being crushed by the policies of this administration,” said Representative Pete Stauber, a Republican who in 2018 flipped a Democratic seat that covers a vast swath of Northeast Minnesota, including its iron range. “Those 10 electoral votes are going to go to President Donald Trump.”

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