Who and how should Ukraine work with in the Republican Party to maintain US support in the Trump era and beyond? Interview
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Since the Cold War, the US Republican Party has traditionally been associated with active and tough external views, defense of democracy and free markets, and conservative values.
But the first two months of Donald Trump's second presidential term have rather raised concerns about isolationism, protectionism, and populism in US and Republican politics.
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But no party, especially in a two-party system, is monolithic and consists of different groups, factions, and influential individuals. What groups exist within the modern Republican Party, with whom, and how can Ukraine work?
Forbes Ukraine spoke about this with Razom for Ukraine lawyer Daniel Weinstein during his first visit to Kyiv.
Daniel Weinstein
From 2019 to 2024, Daniel Weinstein worked on teams of five Republican congressmen with different views. They included moderate and pro-Ukrainian conservative Tim Tillis, party whip and Republican majority leader Steve Scullys, and Victoria Spartz, a Ukrainian-born congresswoman and Trump supporter.
Since September 2024, Weinstein has been working for Razom for Ukraine, which advocates for the interests of Ukraine. His focus is on working on Capitol Hill, primarily with Republican congressmen.
*A party member who ensures party discipline, i.e. the presence of the required number of votes from party members.
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The conversation has been shortened and edited for clarity.
Influence groups within the Republican Party
You've worked with Republicans of all stripes. What influence groups or factions exist within the party?
There are two approaches to classification. The first concerns political blocs within the party among members of the House of Representatives , where various caucuses operate – internal groups that unite like-minded people to promote specific policies. The second approach is the independent ideological structure of Republicans.
Let's start with the caucuses.
There are three main caucuses. The first is the Main Street or Tuesday Group, which includes moderate and business-oriented Republicans. They have always supported Ukraine and have not voted against the aid. They are the smallest group in the Republican majority in the House, but they will continue to be the most pro-Ukrainian.
The second largest group is the Freedom Caucus, which is the most right-wing and ideologically motivated. They have become a loyal opposition within the party, fully embracing Trump’s agenda. Most of their members will not even want to discuss the Ukraine issue, reflecting both the rise of anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian narratives among MAGA supporters and a general belief in isolationism.
The Republican Study Committee is the largest group. They are in the middle: not quite MAGA right, but not quite moderate either. They have been around since the 1970s and 1980s and represent a diverse range of Republicans.
Some of them support Ukraine, others do not, often expressing doubts due to corruption or insufficient support from Europe.
These Republicans are the most promising for persuasion, as they are ready for a reasoned discussion, and it is with them that it is important to have a conversation.
You also talked about the ideological divide. What is it?
There is a big difference between freedom republicans and national republicans .
Freedom Republicans adhere to the traditional model of Ronald Reagan conservatism: engagement in foreign policy, free market values, and free trade.
National republicans are more inclined towards a nationalist populist movement. Isolationism, protectionism, strong social policies, very limited immigration.
Freedom republicans are more likely to support Ukraine. National republicans, on the other hand, do not support Ukraine and are closely associated with figures such as Viktor Orban and his movement in Hungary.
So, Freedom Republicans are people like John McCain, after whom even a street in Kyiv is named.
Yes, but in McCain's time, the ideological divide was minimal. The Freedom Republicans were the foundation of the Republican Party. The idea of a nationalist right-wing movement has been around for a long time, but has only recently become popular and important.
Which of these camps is the most influential now?
Trump always focuses on the last person he spoke to. Among the caucuses, the Freedom Caucus was the most loyal to him, swore allegiance to him. That is why Trump has sympathy for them. However, the House of Representatives is run by the Republican Study Committee, which includes Mike Johnson , Stephen Scalise and the committee chairs. Thus, the Freedom Caucus has the greatest influence on Trump, and the Republican Study Committee is more important for advancing matters in Congress.
Rusrepublican Gray Cardinals
Who are the most influential people in the Republican Party, not counting the top guys: Trump, Vance, Rubio, Walz?
I recommend paying attention to John Thune, the Senate leader who used to be a strong supporter of Ukraine, but now has to balance between the different views of the Republicans. There is a vanguard of pro-Ukraine supporters in the Senate, including Lindsey Graham and Tom Tillis , with whom Thune often joined, but now he has to manage with the diverse views of his party.
Witkoff , who has gained the trust not only of Trump but also of his most radical supporters, is gaining more and more influence in Trump's team.
It is equally important to pay attention to governors, including Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida, who could become presidential candidates in 2028.
Non-partisan influencers include Jared Kushner , although his influence is waning, and Tucker Carlson , who has weight among the far right.
Also Charlie Kirk , leader of Turning Point USA , who does not support Ukraine, but is good at mobilizing conservative activists and has great influence in Trump's team.
Ron DeSantis, Republican Governor of Florida Photo Getty Images
Tell us about Lindsey Graham's influence. He supports Ukraine, in particular, he promoted the idea of critical minerals to win Ukraine over to Trump , but at the same time he sometimes voted against us and criticized Zelensky for the scandal in the White House .
Graham is an interesting figure in US politics: on the one hand, he is close to Trump, on the other, he is unpopular among his “base.” When Trump introduced him at a rally in South Carolina, Lindsey was booed.
How did he manage to win the election in South Carolina despite this?
Graham has an institutional advantage due to his long career in Congress. The longer a person is in Congress, the better developed their network of influence.
Trump supports him, and many voters vote for Graham because of his ties to the president.
Is this influential senator still on Ukraine's side?
I believe he is a true supporter of Ukraine, has spent a lot of political capital to support it, and wants to see Ukrainian democracy flourish.
Many Republicans need political cover to fully support Ukraine. Therefore, it is important to show that supporting Ukraine is beneficial to the United States, and we must argue this for voters.
That's how I see Lindsey Graham and other Republicans who say the right things but need additional incentives for continued support.
Lindsey Graham and Volodymyr Zelensky, Munich Security Conference, February 2025 Photo Getty Images
How to convince Republicans in Ukraine
What messages should each group convey to Ukraine?
The best way to get change from politicians is to influence voters. Immediately after the election, Razom commissioned a survey of Republican voters from Eighteen92, a polling firm that worked with the Trump campaign.
We found that even skeptics among Republican voters can change their minds. After we informed them of certain facts about the war, their willingness to continue supporting Ukraine increased by 20 percentage points.
What are the facts?
There are messages and strategies that work. 71% of skeptics said they would be more likely to support Ukraine after learning about the abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children by Russia.
A similar result was found regarding Russia's persecution of evangelicals in the occupied territories. Republicans are sensitive to emotional stories.
Another important aspect is the communication of aid. 60% of skeptics are ready to support aid to Ukraine if it strengthens Trump's position in negotiations. They want to see him succeed.
What about the transactional nature that many analysts are talking about? How to offer benefits to Republicans?
Republican congressmen often ask, “What is the benefit to the voters in my district from supporting Ukraine?” Many of them represent rural and poor districts, and this is an important question.
There are examples of how to show the benefits of relations with Ukraine. For example, Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas and is purchasing LNG from the US. We told congressmen from Louisiana about the supply of gas from their state to Ukraine – although their opinion did not change much, they did think about it.
There are also other aspects, like Ukrainian drones and military experience. We need to show how these relations are beneficial to the Americans.
In general, I would advise focusing on transactional arguments to conservative leaders. When our team speaks to Trump voters in conservative areas of Louisiana, Texas, Pennsylvania, their first phrase is: “We pray for you.” So arguments about human rights and Russian war crimes resonate well with them.
House Speaker Mike Johnson shows off the Bible Photo Getty Images
The Future of the Republican Party
What is an acceptable scenario for Republicans regarding Ukraine?
It depends on the group. The reaction to the scandal in the White House was indicative. Some criticized Zelensky and Ukraine, some spoke out against Putin. But the majority did not react in any way.
As my colleague who works for a Republican congressman explained, they don't see the need to take a clear position on Ukraine. Because many Republicans represent mostly rural, poor districts and are indifferent to foreign policy. It's those indifferent people who need to be persuaded to side with you.
Is there any internal opposition to Trump in the party right now? At least to his most radical ideas.
This administration values ideological purity. But there is limited opposition in views on the methods of achieving its goals.
How is that?
People on the hard MAGA wing want to burn and destroy everything and achieve change. But there are those who value institutions and a more moderate approach more. Trump still trusts the latter and keeps them around too. But this is not the same “adult room” as in Trump’s first term.
How do you see the future of the party? A return to classic freedom republicanism after the midterm elections in 2026 ? Or the dominance of national republicanism and a conditional Vance as the presidential candidate in 2028?
No major changes are expected after the 2026 elections unless the Republicans suffer a significant defeat.
The future of the party depends on young voters and activists. This worries me the most, as our sociology has shown that the 18-35 age group among Republicans is the most opposed to Ukraine, while older voters support it.
This is not in the best interest of those who want to see the Republican Party in its traditional form. So I'm not too optimistic, although I hope that there are people in the conservative movement who hold traditional values and are willing to defend them.
