While the Trump administration lays out plans to pressure Vladimir Putin with economic measures against the Russian energy sector, Ukraine is taking a more direct approach. Since early 2025, Ukrainian forces have carried out a series of bombings of oil refineries and other energy infrastructure deep inside Russia. The attacks are part of an ambitious Ukrainian air offensive that also targets Russian military logistics and defense production facilities.
Ukraine’s expanding airstrikes highlight the country’s growing long-range capabilities, thanks to the rapid expansion of domestic drone and missile production since 2022. The attacks come as Russian forces slowly but surely advance into eastern Ukraine. By bringing Putin’s invasion home to Russia, Kyiv aims to disrupt Moscow’s combat operations, expose Russia’s vulnerabilities, and create deterrence that could ultimately help pave the way for a lasting peace.
Russia remains tight-lipped about the impact of its recent bombing campaign in Ukraine, with Kremlin officials routinely attributing any evidence of successful strikes to “wreckage” from Ukrainian drones shot down by Russian air defenses. In reality, however, there are growing signs that the campaign is causing significant damage. On January 28, Reuters reported that work at Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery had been suspended after a series of drone attacks. The refinery is one of the country’s four largest and supplies the Russian military.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently used his daily video address to emphasize the importance of his country’s air offensive. “I would like to thank all the developers and manufacturers of our long-range drones and missiles,” he said on January 26. “Everyone can see their effectiveness. Our weapons bring the war back to Russia and reduce Russia’s military potential.”
Ukraine’s bombing campaign in early 2025 owes much to advances in the country’s drone fleet. Speaking in January, Ukrainian officials said the military now has drone models capable of striking targets up to 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) inside Russia. “Our main goal is to strike logistics hubs in the rear, ammunition depots, and reduce enemy pressure at the front,” said the battalion commander of Ukraine’s 14th Unmanned Aerial Systems Regiment, which focuses specifically on long-range strikes.
In addition to drones, Ukraine’s air offensive also makes use of the country’s growing missile arsenal. Since 2022, Ukrainian authorities have revived the country’s domestic missile industry after decades of stagnation as part of an effort to boost firepower and reduce reliance on Western arms supplies. This has resulted in the development of a host of new models, including the Palyanitsa, Peklo, Ruta, Neptun, and Sapsan missiles. However, scaling production remains a major challenge, requiring significant investment, foreign partnerships, and secure production sites to evade Russian attacks.
Several Western allies, such as the UK and Denmark, are already stepping up support for Kyiv’s missile programme, which is seen as a cost-effective way to support Ukraine’s war effort. Deploying domestically produced Ukrainian missiles also reduces the risk of potential escalation from using Western-supplied weapons against targets inside Russia, a key concern among Kyiv’s partners. While this offers obvious benefits, progress is unlikely to be rapid. In fact, some experts believe it will take at least another year for Ukraine to be able to ramp up missile production to a level that could pose a serious threat to Russia.
The bombing campaign against Ukraine serves a number of strategic purposes. First and foremost, it disrupts the logistics of a Russian invasion and increases the cumulative strain on supply chains while reducing the output of Putin’s defense industry. Attacks on energy infrastructure, such as ports and refineries, are aimed at weakening the central pillar of Russia’s war economy, limiting the Kremlin’s ability to generate vital revenue from energy exports.
Airstrikes deep inside Russia also play a significant role in shaping perceptions of the war. For the Ukrainian public and international audiences, these attacks provide compelling evidence of Ukraine’s growing ability to strike back at Russia, despite the Kremlin’s overwhelming superiority in both manpower and firepower. The lack of a decisive response from Moscow also further undermines perceptions of Russia’s red lines and encourages Ukraine’s Western allies to overcome their fears of escalation.
Meanwhile, the increasing frequency of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes is raising alarm in Russia and directly undermining the Kremlin’s painstaking efforts to protect ordinary Russians from the effects of the invasion. Like Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, these attacks confirm that the war cannot be contained within Ukraine’s borders and will increasingly spill over into Russia itself.
In the long term, officials in Kyiv hope that Ukraine’s proven ability to strike targets deep inside Russia could strengthen the country’s hand in potential negotiations and serve as a powerful deterrent against future Russian aggression. With that in mind, Zelensky said Ukraine’s rapidly expanding drone and missile programs are “our arguments for a just peace.” For that argument to be truly compelling, Ukraine will need to continue to increase the frequency of long-range drone strikes and significantly expand the country’s domestic missile industry.
David Kirichenko is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.
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