The European Parliament has condemned Belarus's presidential election this weekend as a “fraud” designed to preserve the country's longtime dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, in power. In a resolution adopted ahead of the January 26 vote, MEPs noted the lack of any credible opposition candidates and called for tougher sanctions against Belarus.
Days earlier, the United States said the vote could not be free or fair because of the “repressive environment” in the country. “The United States joins many of our European allies in assessing that elections cannot be credible in an environment where censorship is pervasive and independent media no longer exists,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The international condemnation did not come as a surprise. Since the early 1990s, Lukashenko, 70, has steadily concentrated power in his hands. For more than three decades, he has imposed an authoritarian political culture in Belarus that closely echoes the Soviet past.
The political climate has become particularly oppressive since Belarus’s last presidential election in 2020, when opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya emerged from obscurity to mobilize a grassroots movement demanding change. When authorities then rigged the vote in Lukashenka’s favor, weeks of nationwide protests erupted that threatened to topple the regime.
Lukashenko was ultimately able to cling to power in 2020 thanks to the Kremlin’s support. Following the protests, he launched a ruthless crackdown on any opposition, leading to thousands of arrests and reports of serious human rights abuses. Civil society and the country’s last remaining independent media outlets were targeted. Hundreds of thousands fled Belarus to avoid possible persecution.
The Belarusian dictator is clearly in no mood to repeat the mistakes of 2020, when his decision to allow an outsider loser to vote backfired so disastrously. Ahead of Sunday's vote, only the most reserved of the regime's approved opponents were allowed to participate.
Lukashenko was so terrified of the upcoming elections that he “cleaned up the political field completely, leaving no room for alternative candidates,” said Anna Lyubakova, a journalist from Belarus who was forced into exile after the 2020 protests. “The trauma of 2020 and deep mistrust remain strong,” she said.
Tikhanovskaya, a 2020 rival who now leads Belarus’ democratic opposition from exile, was also critical of the upcoming elections. “The so-called ‘elections’ of the Belarusian dictator are nothing more than a scam,” she said. “We will not be deceived. All political prisoners must be released and the repression must stop.”
With Lukashenko guaranteed to win Sunday’s vote, the only remaining question is how much of a margin he will command. In 2020, he was officially credited with 81 percent, despite widespread claims that Tikhanovskaya actually won more votes. “The last intriguing moment in this sham election is how many votes Lukashenko will take for himself,” Lyubakova said.
Lukashenko’s deepening dictatorship is not only a threat to domestic human rights and democratic values in Belarus itself. The country is also a key ally of the Kremlin and a junior partner in an emerging axis of autocratic regimes that includes Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
Minsk and Moscow have enjoyed close relations for decades, bound by a broad but vague Union State agreement dating back to the 1990s. Despite this apparent closeness, Lukashenko has spent much of his rule attempting to maintain a degree of independence while balancing between Russia and the West. That strategy has unraveled since the 2020 uprising, however, leaving the Belarusian strongman shunned by Western leaders and heavily reliant on Putin for his continued political survival.
Since 2020, Lukashenko has allowed a dramatic expansion of Russian influence in Belarus in a process some have likened to a creeping annexation of the country. He allowed tens of thousands of Russian troops to use Belarus as a base for an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and has since begun to deploy limited quantities of Russian nuclear weapons. Lukashenko has also been linked to alleged Russian war crimes, including the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.
Meanwhile, Belarus faces accusations of trying to undermine the European Union through armed migration on its western border. According to a recent POLITICO report, Belarus is helping large numbers of migrants enter the EU illegally as part of Lukashenko’s “revenge” for imposing sanctions. In response, Poland is beefing up security on the Belarusian border and calling on the EU to take tougher measures.
Sunday’s sham elections are a timely reminder of the ongoing fight for fundamental freedoms against a brutal dictatorship in the geographic heart of Europe. Western governments can play a meaningful role in that fight by supporting independent Belarusian media, supporting human rights defenders, imposing additional sanctions, and highlighting the plight of the country’s many political prisoners. While international attention rightly focuses on Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders should not forget that neighboring Belarus also remains a critical front in the fight against resurgent authoritarianism.
Mercedes Sapuppo is Associate Director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.
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