A key element of Russia’s strategy against Ukraine is its systematic efforts to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. By bombing Ukraine’s energy grid, Moscow aims to undermine Ukraine’s war effort, cripple the Ukrainian economy, and demoralize Ukrainians. The country is currently bracing for widespread power outages in the coming winter months.
Since March 2024, Russia has destroyed Ukraine’s thermal and hydroelectric power plants. As a result, Ukraine now relies on the country’s nuclear industry for more than 70 percent of its electricity needs. It is therefore vital for Ukraine to protect, maintain, and expand its nuclear generation. Given the Soviet origins of Ukraine’s nuclear power industry, this will not be easy.
Obtaining parts to keep old reactors running while Kyiv transitions to Western nuclear technology and expands energy production in other sectors, such as renewables, is critical. The opportunity to bridge the parts shortage now presents itself and should be seized to help Ukraine keep its infrastructure running and expand the country’s nuclear power generation as quickly as possible.
As part of efforts to fill the energy production gaps created by Russia's targeted attacks, Ukraine and Bulgaria are currently working on an agreement to transfer excess nuclear equipment destined for Bulgaria's Belene NPP to Ukraine's Khmelnitsky NPP. This would allow the third and fourth reactors at the Ukrainian plant to be completed.
After Bulgaria ruled out starting the process of installing Russian equipment at its Belene NPP, Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy and Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom quickly saw an opportunity. They saw that Bulgaria was now the only country in the world with excess Russian nuclear equipment needed to complete the unfinished units at the Khmelnitsky NPP.
Given that Ukraine began building the two unfinished units several years ago using Russian technology, it had two options: abandon the units and their power generation entirely, or gain access to Bulgaria-owned equipment to safely install these components in cooperation with Energoatom’s Western nuclear partners to boost Ukraine’s power generation. In the process, this could lead to new shared experiences that could help countries around the world reduce and ultimately end their reliance on Russia’s Rosatom.
The ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Bulgaria highlight Russia’s diminishing energy influence in the Balkans, but that does not mean the initiative is without problems. On the contrary, a number of serious obstacles are holding up the completion of this vital deal. One is Russia’s long-standing influence in Bulgaria. This includes the activities of Kremlin proxies in Bulgaria who are working to sabotage the transfer of Bulgarian nuclear equipment to Ukraine. The second obstacle is the financing of the potential transfer of equipment.
For decades, Russia has exerted significant influence on Bulgaria's energy, media and political spheres. Moscow is not going to give up its positions without a fight and is doing everything possible to maintain its position as a decisive player in Bulgarian affairs.
A key component of Moscow’s strategy in Bulgaria is a systematic campaign, much like efforts elsewhere, including in Moldova and Serbia, to scuttle the deal with Ukraine, thereby preventing additional electricity generation in Ukraine and further undermining Ukraine’s efforts to end its nuclear dependence on Russia. Earlier this year, when Ukrainian nuclear experts traveled to Bulgaria to inspect equipment, supporters of the pro-Russian Bulgarian party Vazrazhdane (Revival) confronted the Ukrainian delegation and attempted to prevent it from accessing the equipment.
The second key issue is financing, which has been under negotiation for nearly two years. Bulgaria’s parliament is pressuring the government to strike a deal for at least €600 million, the same price that Bulgaria’s National Electric Company paid Russia’s Atomstroyexport. Progress could be made if international partners provide Bulgaria with funding to invest in the expansion of its Kozloduy nuclear power plant, where Westinghouse will build the reactors. The fact that Westinghouse is involved in fuel production and reactor construction in both Ukraine and Bulgaria is a potentially important point of intersection for the two countries, and reflects why the United States in particular is interested in the successful transfer of Bulgaria’s excess nuclear equipment to Ukraine.
Given that the purchase and transfer of equipment would benefit Europe’s long-term energy security, there are European funds that could be tapped, including those available through the European Commission’s Ukraine Fund, which has a mandate to rebuild infrastructure and support the continuity of critical services such as energy transmission. The United States could support the Europeans in this endeavor, including by providing funding from its aid to Ukraine. However, Kyiv would likely face significant transparency challenges and would need to inspire confidence among stakeholders.
The transfer of Bulgaria’s excess nuclear equipment to Ukraine would help meet Kyiv’s electricity generation needs and would also pose a serious challenge to Russia’s strategy in both Ukraine and the Balkans. Strengthening Ukraine’s nuclear energy capabilities would improve the country’s economic prospects and allow Ukraine to eventually replace Russia as Europe’s main energy supplier in the post-war period. This makes Ukraine’s acquisition of Bulgaria’s nuclear power plant equipment a significant opportunity for the West that should not be missed.
Stephen Blank is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
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