Delegations from Russia and Ukraine failed to reach any meaningful breakthroughs when they met for peace talks in Istanbul on Monday. But the event was no waste of time. In addition to agreeing on another long-awaited round of prisoner exchanges, the two sides also exchanged peace proposals that confirmed the complete absence of middle ground for any meaningful compromise to end the fighting.
While Ukraine’s proposal laid out a rather pragmatic vision based on battlefield realities and security concerns, Russia presented punitive peace terms that would restore the Kremlin’s control over Kiev and condemn the post-war Ukrainian state to a slow but inevitable death. This uncompromising Russian position should serve as a wake-up call to anyone who still believes that Putin is negotiating in good faith. In fact, the Russian dictator is more determined than ever to destroy Ukraine and is simply using the US-led peace talks to strengthen his position and divide the West.
The demands made by the Russian delegation in Istanbul this week were not unexpected and closely mirrored the terms laid out on numerous previous occasions by Putin and other Kremlin leaders. Yet at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump is publicly insisting on progress toward peace, Russia’s decision to provide such a maximalist memorandum was a clear signal of defiance to Washington.
As expected, Moscow repeated its call for Ukraine to completely withdraw its troops from four Ukrainian regions that Russia currently claims as its own but has not been able to fully occupy. This would oblige the Ukrainian authorities to hand over a number of major cities and condemn millions of its compatriots to indefinite Russian occupation. Kyiv is also expected to formally cede these regions along with Crimea, paving the way for international recognition of Russia's conquests.
This crushing territorial settlement is just one aspect of Russia’s vision of a comprehensive dismantling of Ukrainian statehood. Under Putin’s peace terms, Ukraine would be forced to accept limits on the size of its army and the types of weapons it is allowed to possess. The country would also be prohibited from joining any military blocs or forming alliances with foreign countries. It doesn’t take much imagination to guess what Putin has planned for Ukraine once it has been successfully disarmed and isolated internationally.
But that’s not all. The Kremlin’s conditions actually go much further, and are aimed at transforming Ukraine internally in ways that would destroy Ukrainian identity along with the country’s political independence. Moscow’s memorandum called for Ukraine to grant Russian the status of an official state language, restore the privileges of the Russian Orthodox Church, and adopt a Kremlin-friendly version of Ukrainian history. Meanwhile, all so-called “nationalist” Ukrainian political parties would be banned, paving the way for the installation of a puppet regime in Kyiv.
On the morning after a bilateral meeting this week, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated the true purpose of Russia’s participation in the peace talks. “The Istanbul talks are not intended to conclude a compromise peace on someone’s delusional terms,” commented Medvedev, who currently serves as deputy chairman of Russia’s powerful National Security Council. Instead, Medvedev said Russia’s goal is to secure victory and ensure “the complete destruction of the neo-Nazi regime,” which is widely recognized as the Kremlin’s code for a Ukrainian state. “This is precisely what the Russian memorandum published yesterday is about,” he said.
Medvedev’s frank assessment of Russia’s position earned him sardonic praise from U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham. “Congratulations to Mr. Medvedev on a rare moment of honesty from the Russian propaganda machine,” said Trump ally Graham. “I appreciate you letting the world know that Putin and Russia have no interest in peace.”
It is hard to argue with Graham’s assessment. Over the past few months, Putin has been at pains to demonstrate that he has no intention of ending the war. While Ukraine has accepted the U.S. offer of an unconditional ceasefire, Putin has repeatedly refused to do so. Instead, he has engaged in transparent stalling tactics that make a mockery of the entire peace process.
Away from the negotiating table, Putin has dramatically increased drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, killing and wounding hundreds of civilians. On the battlefield, his armies are currently engaged in the early stages of what is shaping up to be one of the biggest Russian offensives of the war. These are not the actions of a man seeking peace.
With new evidence this week of Moscow’s unabated imperial ambitions in Ukraine, it is surely time to abandon any long-held delusions and acknowledge that the Russian dictator will not stop until he is stopped. Putin believes he is on a messianic mission to destroy Ukrainian statehood and rebuild the Russian empire. He currently thinks he is winning this historic struggle, and will not be swayed by Trump’s comparatively trivial talk of tariffs and trade deals.
The only thing that can change Putin’s mind is Western power. As long as Putin is confident of eventual victory, he will continue. But if the alternative to a peace deal is potentially crushing defeat, he may change his mind. To achieve this change, Western leaders must demonstrate a degree of collective resolve that has often been missing over the past three years. They must impose sanctions on Russia to the max and arm Ukraine to the teeth. This will require considerable political will and good old-fashioned courage in Western capitals. Ukraine will do the rest.
Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council's UkraineAlert service.
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