One of the many myths and legends surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the idea that Kyiv rejected a reasonable Russian peace deal in the first weeks of the war. In fact, newly obtained documents confirm that the terms offered by the Kremlin in the spring of 2022 would have left Ukraine divided, disarmed, internationally isolated, and completely unable to defend itself from further Russian aggression. In other words, Vladimir Putin’s supposed peace offer was in fact a call for unconditional surrender and a plan to destroy the Ukrainian state.
Documents released this week by Radio Free Europe provide important new insights into the seriousness of the Kremlin’s demands when Russian and Ukrainian delegations sat down to negotiate in the war’s first weeks. As Putin’s armies swept across southern Ukraine and advanced on Kyiv, Russian officials listed their conditions for ending the invasion and implementing a cease-fire. The resulting draft treaty laid out the unacceptable costs of what would amount to Ukraine’s capitulation.
In terms of territorial concessions, Ukraine would have to cede Crimea and Donbass entirely, and agree to the continued occupation of territories then under Russian control until Moscow deemed its conditions fully met. Kyiv would also have been forced to grant Russian the status of an official state language and pass a series of laws targeting Ukrainian religion, history, and national identity, echoing the Russification policies of the Soviet and Tsarist empires.
The most detailed and revealing section of the draft peace treaty concerned the demilitarization of Ukraine. Russia called for a radical reduction of the Ukrainian army to a skeleton force of just fifty thousand. This was about one-fifth of its pre-war size and a fraction of Ukraine’s current armed forces, which are believed to number about a million soldiers. Meanwhile, there were to be strict limits on the amount of armored vehicles Ukraine could possess, the types of missiles the country could develop, and the size of the Ukrainian air force.
The Kremlin’s peace plan also obliged Ukraine to abandon its ambitions for NATO membership and agree not to join bilateral alliances or seek military aid from Western countries. In later drafts, dating from the final stages of the failed peace process in April 2022, Russia also somewhat absurdly insisted on a veto over any international response to future attacks on Ukraine. If Ukraine’s leaders accepted Moscow’s thinly veiled ultimatum, the country would be disarmed and defenseless.
While Russia’s demands were clearly unacceptable, that did not stop Putin from repeatedly pointing to the failed talks of spring 2022 as evidence that he was committed to a peaceful resolution to the war. Indeed, he has repeatedly hinted that the terms laid out in Belarus and Istanbul at the outset of Russia’s invasion should remain the basis for any negotiated peace agreement.
Putin’s 2022 proposal not only fails to present a viable vision of sustainable peace, it actually underscores his commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood and erasing Ukraine entirely from the map. Cut off from Western military aid and lacking an army of its own, a neutered and demoralized Ukraine will be unable to put up serious resistance if Russia decides to renew its invasion.
There can be no doubt that this was Putin’s plan. Whether his ultimate goal was to completely defeat the country or to install a puppet government, it is virtually impossible to imagine that an independent Ukrainian state could survive for long in such desperate circumstances. Instead, most of Ukraine would likely have been annexed outright, with the remaining territory handed over to Kremlin loyalists.
The peace terms offered by Russia in 2022, and subsequently repeated by Putin himself, make a mockery of the idea that Ukraine could end the invasion by striking some kind of land-for-peace compromise with the Kremlin. Putin’s war aims clearly extend far beyond the roughly twenty percent of Ukraine currently under Russian occupation, to include the takeover of the entire country, along with the systematic suppression of Ukrainian identity.
This raises difficult questions for the growing chorus of voices calling for a negotiated settlement based on the current front lines of the war. Crucially, anyone who believes that Putin will be satisfied with his current achievements must explain why he is so insistent on disarming Ukraine. After all, it cannot be justified on grounds of Russian national security. Indeed, no serious analyst would argue that Ukraine poses a real military threat to the much larger and infinitely more powerful Russian Federation.
The only plausible reason to disarm Ukraine is to render the entire country defenseless and at Putin’s mercy. That should tell you all you need to know about his true intentions and the scope of his imperial ambitions. From the start, Putin saw a full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a historic mission that would define his personal place in Russian history and Russia’s place in the modern world. Trying to appease him with limited territorial concessions would be both dishonest and delusional, and would set the stage for further Russian aggression in Ukraine and beyond.
Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council's UkraineAlert service.
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