Almost two months ago, Ukraine agreed to a U.S. proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Russia still refuses to do the same. Instead, Putin continues to engage in stalling tactics while escalating the war.
Since U.S.-led peace talks began in February, Russia has carried out some of the deadliest attacks on Ukrainian civilians in its invasion, including a ballistic missile strike on a playground in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih that killed 18 people, including nine children. On Palm Sunday, Russia targeted the center of Sumy as civilians were heading to church, killing 35.
Some of these attacks have made international headlines. Many others have not. Every day, the populations of frontline Ukrainian cities like Kharkiv in the east and Kherson in the south are subjected to relentless Russian bombardment. At night, millions of Ukrainians are forced to seek shelter as Russia launches wave after wave of missiles and drones at targets across the country.
As Russia intensifies its air offensive against Ukrainian civilians, the death toll is rising. The number of Ukrainian casualties has risen sharply recently, according to U.N. officials. In the first 24 days of April, 848 civilians were killed or wounded, up 46 percent from the same period a year ago.
Meanwhile, Russia is also stepping up its offensive operations on the battlefield as Putin’s commanders seek to wear down Ukrainian resistance and achieve a breakthrough. This is causing Russian casualties to mount. The UK Ministry of Defence says Russia has lost around 160,000 men in the first four months of 2025. If the current rate of attrition continues, this will be the costliest year of the war for Putin’s invading army.
Despite ample evidence of Russia’s intent to escalate its invasion, the United States continues to pursue a vision of peace through compromise. Since the start of negotiations, the Trump administration has offered the Kremlin a series of concessions while pressuring Ukraine to back down on key issues such as the country’s NATO ambitions. A recent U.S. peace proposal has indicated that President Trump may even be willing to formally recognize Russia’s seizure of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
The tone of American diplomacy has changed markedly since Trump returned to the White House, with U.S. officials now seeking to avoid any direct condemnation of Russia. Consistent with this new strategy, the United States has sided with Moscow on several occasions, voting against U.N. resolutions critical of the Kremlin. The U.S. has also backed away from international efforts to hold Russia accountable for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, halting funding for one flagship program and withdrawing from another.
The Trump administration’s conciliatory approach to Russia does not appear to be working. Instead of offering concessions of his own, Putin has responded to the new U.S. administration’s peace initiative by doubling down on his maximalist military goals. The Kremlin dictator insists on international recognition of Russia’s claims to Ukrainian territory and demands that any peace deal leave Ukraine unarmed and internationally isolated.
The current lack of progress toward peace should come as no surprise. After all, the experience of the past two decades has shown that nothing provokes Putin more than weakness. When the West chose not to punish Russia for its invasion of Georgia in 2008, it paved the way for the invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. The West’s disappointing response to Putin’s initial assault on Ukrainian sovereignty then paved the way for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The Russians’ sense of impunity has now become the decisive factor fueling the largest invasion of Europe since World War II. Although Putin is always willing to engage in diplomatic maneuvering, his evasive actions in recent months confirm that he is not interested in a compromise peace. Instead, he is more confident than ever that he can outlast the West in Ukraine and achieve his goals.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment in world history that will shape the future of international security for decades to come. If Western leaders allow Russia to continue bombing civilians and eroding the foundations of international law without consequences, a new ruthless world order will emerge, defined by the principle that might makes right. Putin and his authoritarian counterparts in China, Iran, and North Korea will dominate the world stage and rewrite the rules to suit their expansionist designs. No country will be safe.
Today, Ukrainians are paying the price for the West's reluctance to confront Russia. If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, many other countries will also count the cost of this failure.
Alena Nevmerzhitskaya is the CEO of hromadske.ua.
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