The involvement of North Korean troops in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last November underscored the increasingly global nature of the war unleashed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has sent a strong signal to European leaders that they should prepare to invest more in their own defence and take a leading role in further supporting Ukraine.
No one is more acutely aware of these security realities than Lithuania’s new government, which took office in December 2024. Situated near Russia on the eastern edge of the democratic world, Lithuania is a member of both NATO and the European Union. The largest of the three Baltic states, it is on the front lines of a geopolitical struggle between the West and Putin’s resurgent authoritarianism.
Of course, the Russian leader is not acting alone. In December 2024, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda warned of an “emerging axis of evil” comprising Russia, Belarus, China, Iran, and North Korea. The Lithuanian leader stressed the importance of a “common position” among his Western counterparts in response to this growing authoritarian alliance.
Strengthening national security will be one of the top priorities of Lithuania's new center-left government, which was formed in the final months of last year following parliamentary elections in October 2024. Lithuanian authorities have already increased military spending to more than 3 percent of GDP in recent years; the new government now promises to increase that figure to 3.5 or even 4 percent.
This would put Lithuania far ahead of most other NATO member states in terms of the country’s national defense budget. However, Lithuania’s defense spending remains small in absolute and relative terms. While the current budget of just over 3 percent of GDP represents about $2.6 billion, Russia plans to allocate 6.3 percent of GDP to defense in 2025, or about $126 billion.
Russia also receives significant financial and material support from its authoritarian allies. Belarus was a key base for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and has since begun hosting Russian nuclear weapons. China supports the Russian economy by buying Russian oil and gas, while Iran supplies Putin with large numbers of kamikaze drones that are used to attack Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure.
Russia’s most important partner at present is North Korea. Pyongyang first began shipping artillery shells to Moscow in late 2022. By October 2024, Western intelligence agencies claimed that North Korea was supplying half of all shells used by Russia in Ukraine. The hermit kingdom also supplied significant quantities of ballistic missiles and reportedly sent more than ten thousand troops to participate in Putin’s invasion.
With no sign that Russia intends to stop its invasion of Ukraine, fears are growing that an emboldened Putin may try to go further. Lithuania’s location makes it an obvious potential target for Russia. Although the country is better prepared than many other NATO members to deal with this threat, much remains to be done.
While Lithuania’s defense budget is growing, much larger sums may be needed. Research conducted in the second half of 2024 found that the Lithuanian government would need to quadruple defense spending to acquire enough weapons and build the necessary infrastructure to repel a hypothetical Russian invasion for the initial 10-day period until NATO allies could fully deploy.
Lithuanian officials seem to understand the scale of the security challenges they currently face. President Nausėda has argued that by the end of 2024, the country should allocate at least 5.5% of GDP to defense in the coming years. This will be a key task for Lithuania’s new Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė.
Most observers agree that creating a comprehensive national defense strategy and devoting sufficient resources is the only way for Lithuania to deter the Kremlin. It will likely be costly, but even the most expensive deterrence is far cheaper than facing the horrors of a Russian invasion.
Dr. Agnia Grigas is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the author of Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire.
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