As the United States continues to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, Kyiv recently accused China of deepening its involvement in Moscow’s invasion. The claims against Beijing add an extra dimension of geopolitical complexity to ongoing negotiations aimed at ending Europe’s worst war since World War II.
In early April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said two Chinese nationals had been captured fighting alongside Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. While the presence of foreign fighters in Putin’s invading army is nothing new, officials in Kyiv say more than 150 Chinese mercenaries have been recruited by Russia. China has called the allegations “completely baseless.”
While there is no evidence linking Russia’s Chinese troops to Beijing, many have suggested that Chinese authorities must be aware that their citizens are fighting in a foreign war. Some have pointed to widespread recruitment ads for the Russian military circulating on China’s heavily censored social media space, and suggested that the existence of these videos indicates a degree of tacit official approval, at a minimum.
U.S. officials do not believe the recently captured fighters have direct ties to the Chinese government, Reuters reports. But there is growing concern in Washington and other Western capitals that Beijing is sending military officers to observe Russia’s incursion into Ukraine in an attempt to learn tactical lessons from the war. That could provide the Chinese military with important insights into drone warfare and the rapidly changing nature of the modern battlefield.
In another sign of growing frustration in Kyiv over China’s perceived support for Russia’s invasion, Zelensky recently accused Chinese citizens of working at a Russian factory producing drones for the war in Ukraine. Last month, Ukrainian authorities also imposed sanctions on three Chinese companies for their alleged involvement in the production of Iskander ballistic missiles, which Russia frequently uses in its war against Ukraine.
The most serious Ukrainian accusations came in mid-April, when Zelensky said China was now supplying weapons and gunpowder to Russia. It was the first time a Ukrainian leader had openly accused Beijing of providing direct military aid to Moscow.
The claims of increased Chinese involvement in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine do not come as a complete surprise. After all, China has long been considered a key Kremlin ally and has emerged as Moscow’s most important economic partner over the past decade.
Ahead of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, China and Russia declared a partnership “without limits.” Over the past three years, the two countries have repeatedly emphasized a shared geopolitical vision that includes a commitment to end the era of U.S. dominance and establish a new multipolar world order. These growing ties have been further underscored by a series of high-level bilateral meetings between Russian and Chinese leaders.
Despite its close relations with Moscow, China has officially taken a neutral stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has included refraining from any overt gestures of support and publicly backing calls for peace. However, Beijing has faced accusations of aiding Russia’s war effort in important ways through the supply of restricted goods, including sanctioned components and dual-use technology used in missiles, tanks and aircraft.
The allegations of growing Chinese involvement have fueled speculation that it could lead to a possible international escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine. There is also concern about what Russia might provide in exchange for Chinese support. US officials have claimed that China is gaining unprecedented access to high-tech Russian defence technology. The US Congress has also suggested that the Kremlin could be providing China with critical knowledge about the vulnerabilities of Western weapons systems based on combat experience gained in Ukraine.
China’s role in the invasion of Ukraine has been the subject of much speculation since February 2022. While Beijing denies providing any material support for Moscow’s war, there is no doubt that the geopolitical partnership between China and Russia has reached a new level amid the conflict.
With the United States now seeking to reduce its involvement in European security, opportunities may soon arise for China to play a more active role in peace efforts to end the war. But Beijing will first need to convince Kyiv that it is a likely peacemaker, not a Russian ally.
Katherine Spencer is a Program Assistant at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.
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