The leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Poland arrived in Kyiv last weekend to great fanfare to deliver an unprecedented ultimatum to the Kremlin. The time for talk is over, they said. Unless Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire by Monday, he will face tough new sanctions and increased arms supplies to Ukraine. “All of us here, along with the United States, are challenging Putin. If he is serious about peace, he has a chance to show it now,” said British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
For a brief moment, it seemed possible that this bold move might revive the faltering peace efforts. After all, if Putin agreed to a ceasefire, the way would be open to more substantive talks. If he refused, the West would be forced to increase pressure on Moscow and force Russia to reconsider its position. But Putin had other ideas. At a hastily arranged midnight press conference in the Kremlin, he decided not to respond directly to the West’s ultimatum, and instead proposed bilateral talks with Ukraine.
Putin’s announcement that he was prepared to resume talks with Ukrainian authorities for the first time since the early months of the war managed to overshadow Saturday’s ultimatum. It also undermined any fleeting sense of Western unity and resolve. Predictably, US President Donald Trump was the first to break ranks, issuing a statement calling on Ukraine to “immediately” accept Putin’s offer to determine whether a peace deal was truly possible.
Elsewhere, confusion reigned. Was the original ultimatum still in effect? There seemed to be no clear answer. In Berlin, German officials said on Monday that “the clock was ticking,” but then took no action when their subsequent midnight deadline came and went. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the Kiev quartet quietly decided to wait until a potential Russia-Ukraine meeting in Istanbul on Thursday before taking any action. It was the antithesis of U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt’s famous foreign policy advice to “speak softly and carry a big stick.” Instead, European leaders chose to speak very loudly, without carrying a stick at all.
Putin’s evasive response to last weekend’s cease-fire ultimatum was consistent with his elusive approach to the entire U.S.-led peace process. Since exploratory talks began in February, Putin has consistently expressed his support for peace. At the same time, he has offered endless excuses and a laundry list of additional demands that make real progress toward a peaceful resolution of the war all but impossible. At one point, he even questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and suggested handing the country over to the United Nations.
By contrast, Ukraine has demonstrated a willingness to compromise in the interests of peace. Kyiv has acknowledged that any negotiated settlement would likely leave the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine under the Kremlin’s de facto control, and has backed a U.S. proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Not surprisingly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly agreed to Trump’s call on Sunday to accept Russia’s offer of bilateral talks. In the current climate, even the most obtuse observers cannot help but conclude that Putin is now the main obstacle to peace.
It remains theoretically possible that this week’s proposed bilateral talks could lead to some kind of breakthrough, but past experience suggests that the prospects for real progress are slim. Instead, the talks are likely to end inconclusively, with the Russian delegation providing just enough false hope to justify another round of protracted meetings. The real question is how long Putin will be allowed to continue his stalling tactics before Western patience finally runs out.
By now it should be obvious that Putin has no genuine interest in ending the war. He refuses to make any meaningful concessions and continues to insist on maximalist peace terms that would leave a post-war Ukraine divided, disarmed, isolated, and defenseless against future Russian aggression. It does not require much imagination to foresee what Putin has planned for Ukraine if his terms are met.
Anyone who thinks Putin is prepared to compromise on Ukraine clearly does not understand his deeply revisionist worldview or his imperial ambitions. While Western leaders talk about the need for diplomatic dialogue and mutual concessions, Putin himself views the current invasion in much more existential terms, as a historic mission to reverse the Soviet collapse and rebuild the Russian empire.
The Russian leader is quite happy to entertain the idea of negotiations to buy time and weaken Western resolve, but he has no intention of stopping until Ukrainian statehood is destroyed. Trump has made legitimate efforts to broker a generous peace, but now it is time to acknowledge that Putin is not negotiating in good faith and will respond only to the language of force.
Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council's UkraineAlert service.
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