The von der Leyen supremacy

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Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition we argue that a second term for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen looks inevitable after her State of the Union speech on Wednesday.

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Editor’s Take: The von der Leyen supremacy

By most accounts, Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union speech on Wednesday (13 September), the last before next June’s European elections, was a success.

Pointing to the EU’s Green Deal, a multi-billion euro financial rescue plan following the COVID pandemic, and response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission president made a sales pitch for a second term without resorting to crude electioneering.

The Brussels bubble has been waiting months to learn whether von der Leyen would seek a second term or opt instead for pastures new, potentially as NATO secretary general. It is now 99% certain that she will seek another term.

But the campaign for the Commission presidency next year may be over before it starts. A second term for von der Leyen might be good for continuity and stability in the EU executive. After a mandate dominated by the crafting of over 30 pieces of legislation on the Green Deal, von der Leyen mach two would be a technocrat administration implementing that programme.

For those who want the battle for the EU top jobs to be more political and based on election results, a shoo-in for von der Leyen would be disappointing.

The EPP and Socialist groups will select Spitzenkandidaten, though it is hard to imagine that they will do more than go through the motions. In Germany, the coalition agreement for the traffic light government led by the socialists has a provision that it will support a candidate from an opposition party if they are the Commission president. All roads point to another von der Leyen presidency.

Shortly after von der Leyen’s speech, a group of MEPs gave a press conference about their plans for the Parliament to push member states to agree to a convention to reform EU treaties.

However, the momentum towards treaty change that existed two years ago appears to have been completely extinguished as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given governments an excuse to kick the can.

The most obvious treaty reform would be to expand the EU’s competences on cross-border health policy, learning one of the lessons from the COVID pandemic. More ambitious items on the wishlist would be to move to qualified majority voting on foreign policy – making it easier for the EU to impose sanctions, for example – and, even more ambitious, to create a eurozone treasury and finance minister.

Relegating the debate on treaty reform to a couple of sentences near the end of her hour-long address, the Commission president poured a bucket of cold water over it. “If and when” treaty change is wanted, she would support it.

Towards the end of her speech, von der Leyen looked up from her script, addressing “Honourable Member States” rather than the “Honourable Members (MEPs)” in front of her. It was a Freudian slip and a telling one.

The results of the European Parliament elections will now probably not determine the Commission’s presidency. That might be good for the machinery of EU governance but not necessarily for the institutions’ democratic deficit.

Capitals-in-brief

Austria rebuts von der Leyen’s call for Schengen enlargement. Austria has rejected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s call to lift its veto against Bulgaria and Romania joining the Schengen area, arguing that extending the visa-free zone now makes no sense.

French, German economy ministers praise EU probe into Chinese electric vehicles. French economic minister Bruno Le Maire and his German counterpart Robert Habeck welcomed President von der Leyen’s announcement of a probe into unfair Chinese competition in the electric vehicle (EV) sector.

Maltese journalists demand action, government reform. More than 130 Maltese journalists, broadcasters, researchers, media platforms and activists have called on Prime Minister Robert Abela to make good on his long-time promises to strengthen the media sector and improve freedom of speech.

Poland-based Ukrainian refugees move to Germany for better wages. Germany has seen more Ukrainian refugees arrive than Poland since late 2022, with most refugees moving West for better welfare standards and job opportunities, a new report by the EWL Migration Platform and the Centre for East European Studies (SEW) at the University of Warsaw has found.

Inside the institutions

PODCAST: Von der Leyen’s SOTEU: Key takeaways and reactions. This week, EURACTIV Beyond the Byline podcast brings you a breakdown of President von der Leyen’s annual State of the European Union (SOTEU) speech on Wednesday (13 September).

Commission chief envisages change of tack on EU farming policy. Ursula von der Leyen gave no reassurances on finalising the missing pieces of the EU’s flagship sustainable food policy in her annual State of the Union address on Wednesday (13 September), instead proposing a change of course in the current agri-food debate.

Delsaux: HERA has taken steps to make pandemic preparedness transparent. As the EU’s Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) is approaching its second birthday, director-general Pierre Delsaux told Euractiv in an interview that they are taking transparency of their work seriously despite persisting worries.

Parliament backs new law to boost green aviation fuels in EU flights. The European Parliament gave the green light on Wednesday (13 September) to new rules that will increase the quantity of sustainable jet fuel in flights departing from EU airports, marking a major step towards reducing emissions from the notoriously carbon-intensive transport mode.

What we are reading

The ‘Global South’ is a pernicious term that needs to be retired, Alan Beattie writes for the Financial Times

Belgium releases €1 million extra humanitarian aid for Libya following devastating floods, Lauren Walker writes for the Brussels Times

EU head in ‘fortress’ mode on immigration, writes Nikolaj Nielsen for the EU Observer

The next week in politics

Agriculture and Fisheries Council on Monday (18 September) and informal meeting of EU ministers for education and youth on Monday and Tuesday. General Affairs Council on Thursday (21 September), and eventually, an informal meeting of transport ministers on Thursday and Friday (21-22 September) will take place next week.

The European Parliament will dedicate its activities to committee meetings next week.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83

[Edited by Alice Taylor]