Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska on August 15. The key issue is ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. What scenarios are possible? Spoiler: there are good ones too
Forbes Agro Business Conference : discover new agro-innovations and investment opportunities — buy a ticket now!
A special price is valid until 25.08.
US President Donald Trump announced a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 8. That was the day Trump set a deadline for imposing US tariffs and sanctions on Russia and its partners over the Kremlin’s refusal to make peace.
However, after the visit to Moscow of US President’s special representative Steve Witkoff, representatives of the American administration began to talk about progress on the peace track and a potential “territorial exchange” between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
Popular Category Ratings Date August 07 10 dynamic craft breweries
The content of Witkoff’s talks with Putin is unknown for certain. Western media, citing sources, reported several versions, which often contradicted each other. From the possibility of a freeze on the front line to the Russian Federation’s demands to hand over the entire Donetsk region, including the fortified Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration.
Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders are alarmed by the prospect of a deal behind their backs. On August 9, in London, the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Andriy Yermak, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerov, together with European colleagues, tried to convey the European-Ukrainian position to US Vice President J.D. Vance.
Neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians will ultimately be satisfied with the agreement to end the war, Vance said after the meeting, and he is not sure whether an agreement will be reached at all. Quotes on the Polymarket exchange are currently too low: the probability of a ceasefire by the end of August is estimated at 13%, September – 23%, and the end of the year – 39%.
What could be the results of a difficult diplomatic week? Forbes Ukraine asked two European, an American, and a Ukrainian analyst to estimate the probability of four scenarios in percentage terms and calculated the average value.
Analysts assessed the probability of four not necessarily mutually exclusive scenarios on a scale from 0% to 100%. Forbes Ukraine calculated the average probability value for each scenario.
A ceasefire is being negotiated – 20% probability
“My assessment does not concern the outcome of the negotiations as a whole, but only the Trump-Putin summit,” warns Daniel Szeligowski, head of the Eastern European Program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).
A meeting at the highest level, especially on US soil, cannot end with Trump leaving empty-handed, he suggests. Therefore, there is probably a prior agreement between the US and Russia.
The probability that Putin and Trump will agree on a ceasefire is relatively high (50%), and a partial truce is even higher (70%), he believes. “But this could be in the form of a declaration by Putin and Trump. It is not a fact that Ukraine will agree to this,” he adds.
If Ukraine does not agree to a potential US-Russia agreement, there is a risk of pressure on Kyiv from Washington, which Europe will try to mitigate, Sheligovsky adds.
In such a scenario, Trump could threaten to stop providing intelligence or ban European countries from purchasing American weapons for Ukraine, says Alexandra Vakru, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University and vice president of KSE.
“The key question is what exactly the agreement between the US and Russia could be,” adds Sheligovsky. “If it’s just a ceasefire, Ukraine will agree, but with political issues, it’s more likely not.”
Partial ceasefire – 36%
Russia may offer Trump a partial ceasefire as a concession. For example, a ban on long-range missile and drone strikes deep into Ukraine, Bloomberg sources reported.
“If at least some concrete agreement is reached, an air ceasefire seems likely,” says Oleksandr Khara, director of the Center for Defense Strategies. There are several arguments why Putin might agree to it, Khara explains.
This will allow the Russian Federation to stop Ukrainian strikes deep into Russia , which damage its energy infrastructure, annoy privileged Russians by disrupting air traffic, and damage Putin’s image.
Russia will be able to accumulate missiles and drones and in any way “argue” for individual strikes on Ukraine or the resumption of massive shelling.
Media effect : The absence of horrific footage after the shelling may reduce the severity of the conflict in the perception of the international audience and, in general, reduce attention to Ukraine.
Russia will sell Trump an air ceasefire as a major concession and expect him to pressure Ukraine on political terms for ending the war, predicts Hara. In parallel, Russia will continue its offensive in the East, hoping to collapse Ukrainian defenses and convince Kyiv’s partners of its own invincibility.
“The Russian Federation will work to destroy national unity in Ukraine and intensify disagreements among our partners,” he adds.
There will be no ceasefire. Trump will increase pressure with sanctions and tariffs on Russia and its partners – 37.5%
Most likely, there will be no truce, and Putin will make the same maximalist demands of Trump, says Harvard’s Vakru. In a scenario of maximalist demands from the Russians, Trump may feel that Putin is not yielding to his cunning manipulations and will be irritated, she suggests.
“Then the tariffs against India, as one of Russia’s key oil trading partners, will remain in place,” adds Vakru. “They could serve Trump’s interests on other issues as well.” However, sanctions and tariffs on partners alone will not stop Russia from continuing the war, the Harvard professor emphasizes.
There will be no ceasefire, and Putin will be able to avoid pressure – 45%
Putin will make an offer that will look like progress on the peace track but will have no real substance, predicts Fredrik Wesslau, a diplomat and senior advisor at Rasmussen Global. He believes the most likely scenario is that Russia will avoid pressure.
“Putin’s proposal will confuse the situation and make Trump believe that there is a possibility for understanding,” he says. “This means that there will be no new direct sanctions against Russia.”
Trump could impose additional tariffs or sanctions on India and other countries, but not directly on Russia, Wesslau does not rule out. “The US president does not want to put direct pressure on Putin. He still believes that his ‘charm’ and strong personality can convince Putin to end the war,” he concludes. “But the Russian president is a master of confusion and distraction.”