Will Biden and Trump’s First Debate Be a Summer Blockbuster?

This week’s matchup on CNN between Trump and Biden may not have the same reach as debates past.

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CNN is hosting the first Biden-Trump presidential debate of 2024 on Thursday evening.

Hi there, and welcome to On Politics. I’ve asked my colleague Michael Grynbaum, who covers media for The New York Times, to answer a big question: How many people are going to watch Thursday’s debate? Then, I’ll share an exclusive poll about an issue that may come up, and we check in with our friends at “The Run-Up.” — Jess Bidgood

By Michael M. Grynbaum

Back in September 2016, the anticipation for the first televised matchup between former President Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was so high, I described it as the “Super Bowl of politics.” Magazine editors in Paris for Fashion Week planned to wake up at 3 a.m. local time to watch. A Texas movie house sold out a live screening. And residents of Nantucket, Mass., showed so much interest in a debate watch party at the local Dreamland Theater that a police officer was hired for crowd control.

In the end, 84 million people watched that debate, a record.

On Monday, I checked in with the Dreamland to see if it was planning a repeat showing when Trump and President Biden face off for their debate on Thursday.

“Interest has dwindled significantly since then,” a theater employee wrote in an email. While he left open the possibility of future watch parties, on this particular Thursday, the theater will be showing a summer blockbuster instead.

The prime-time matchup on Thursday has the potential to seize the nation’s attention, at least for its 90-minute duration. For the first time in decades, a single network, CNN, will oversee the debate, and it will be simulcast on nearly every major channel, along with oodles of news sites. A poll this month showed that 65 percent of registered voters planned to “watch all or most of the debate.”

But, if the Dreamland is any indication, the event may not have quite the same reach as debates past. Prognosticators in the TV news business are expecting Thursday’s audience to be between 30 million and 70 million viewers — a huge range but nevertheless lower than the Clinton-Trump matchup, even if it does turn out to be the most-watched event of this campaign season.

Scattered attention

In our fractured, frazzled media age, people still tune in en masse to watch presidential debates — but there are a few factors working against Thursday’s matchup.

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