Illinois, Colorado, Mississippi and Utah are the settings for suspenseful contests at the federal and state level. New York voters will choose candidates for governor and lieutenant governor, and Oklahoma is holding a special primary election for the Senate.
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Representatives Mary Miller of Illinois and Lauren Boebert of Colorado at a rally Saturday hosted by former President Donald J. Trump in Mendon, Ill.
Voters in Illinois, Colorado, Mississippi and Utah head to the polls on Tuesday in primary and runoff contests full of drama, many of which will define the shape of the November elections: Will some of the most extreme supporters of Donald J. Trump square off with Democrats in the fall, or will voters choose more traditional conservatives?
In New York State, voters will choose candidates for governor and lieutenant governor, while, because of complications from congressional redistricting, House races will wait until August. And Oklahoma is holding a special primary election for the seat being vacated by Senator James M. Inhofe, which is likely to lead to a runoff.
The Supreme Court’s decision to overrule Roe v. Wade raises the stakes, especially for governor’s races in Colorado and Illinois, and to some extent in New York, where abortion would stay legal unless a conservative wave overwhelmed those states’ Democratic natures.
Here is what to watch in Tuesday’s voting:
Colorado’s G.O.P. sticks to election denial, come what may.
Not even former President Donald J. Trump disputed his defeat in Colorado, but Republican voters in the Rocky Mountain State face a slate of primary candidates who are among the most vociferous in their denials of President Biden’s victory.
State Senator Ron Hanks marched to the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and began his campaign to challenge Senator Michael Bennet by using a high-powered rifle to shoot a photocopier labeled to look like an electronic voting machine.
ImageRon Hanks during a Republican Party event in Colorado Springs in April.Credit…Hugh Carey/The Colorado Sun, via Associated Press
Tina Peters, the Mesa County clerk who is running to manage Colorado’s elections as secretary of state, was indicted on charges related to her arranging to copy sensitive election software from county voting machines in an attempt to prove the 2020 presidential election was rigged, according to court records. And Greg Lopez, who is seeking the Republican nomination to take on Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, has also questioned the 2020 election and has promised to pardon Ms. Peters.
All of them face more moderate Republicans who might be tougher for the Democrats to defeat in November.
In the same vein, Representative Lauren Boebert, one of Mr. Trump’s most ardent supporters, who sells “Trump Won” T-shirts in her Shooters restaurant in Rifle, Colo., is favored to beat State Senator Don Coram, a Republican who has promised to stop all of what he calls Ms. Boebert’s “drama.”
But Ms. Boebert does face an influx of Democrats in her Western Colorado district re-registering as unaffiliated voters to participate in the G.O.P. primary, in hopes of limiting Ms. Boebert’s House career to a single term.
Member-against-member races spice up Illinois.
When the Democrats in control of the Illinois government redrew congressional maps this year, they generally moved to shore up incumbents rather than target Republican seats. But to do so, they made some sacrifices. A solidly Republican seat that fills the state’s midsection, nearly bisected by a new Democratic district, has pit Representative Rodney Davis, a traditional conservative and ally of Republican leadership, against Representative Mary E. Miller, a favorite of Mr. Trump’s who made headlines this weekend when she said the Supreme Court’s abortion decision was a “victory for white life.” (An aide insisted she had botched a prepared line about the “right to life.”)
ImageRepresentative Marie Newman with supporters in Chicago in May.Credit…Sara Burnett/Associated Press/Associated Press
In Chicago and its suburbs, two incumbent House Democrats, Sean Casten and Marie Newman, were also pitted against each other on Tuesday. Ms. Newman, a liberal “Justice Democrat” who beat an incumbent conservative Democrat two years ago, is not a favorite of Democratic leadership, especially now that she faces accusations that she persuaded a challenger to drop out of an earlier contest with a written promise of a job on her staff. Mr. Casten faced tragedy this month with the death of his 17-year-old daughter, but has remained in the race.
Governors races redefined in the post-Roe era.
Three states where abortion remains legal — Colorado, New York, and Illinois — will choose a governor for a new era in which the states will determine whether abortion rights exist and how far they extend.
Those states, especially Colorado and Illinois, could become magnets for women seeking to terminate pregnancies who live in neighboring states where the procedure is outlawed. If New York were to flip to the Republicans, abortion rights there could also be at risk.
In Colorado, Mr. Lopez, who opposes abortion without exception for rape or incest, said the Supreme Court’s decision to end a federally protected right to an abortion would allow Coloradans “to redefine our moral compass.” His opponent for the opportunity to take on Mr. Polis, Heidi Ganahi, a member of the University of Colorado Board of Regents, also opposes abortion but would allow it in the case of pregnancies resulting from rape or incest or pregnancies that threaten the life of the mother.
ImageGovernor J.B. Pritzker of Illinois joined demonstrators last week in Chicago at a rally in support of abortion rights.Credit…Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times
Illinois, like Colorado, is surrounded by states where abortion is or will soon become illegal in most cases. Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, has vowed to make his state a regional safe haven.
Not surprisingly, Mr. Pritzker has done his best to help a far-right state senator, Darren Bailey — who called the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe “historic and welcomed” — win the G.O.P. primary for governor. Mr. Bailey has bolted to the lead in polls, outpacing the moderate mayor of Aurora, Richard Irvin, whom Mr. Pritzker most feared.
Mr. Irvin, a former Democrat who is ostensibly an opponent of abortion rights, played down the issue’s importance in the governor’s race, noting that with “Democratic majorities in the Illinois General Assembly, this Supreme Court ruling will have no effect on the law in our state.”
In New York, a new incumbent Democrat tries to hold the governorship.
Less than a year after she took office, Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York is trying to fend off energetic primary challenges from two fellow Democrats on Tuesday to win voters’ support for a full term as the state’s first female governor.
Ms. Hochul, who succeeded Andrew M. Cuomo after his resignation in August, has locked up most of her party’s institutional support and flooded the airwaves with more than $13 million in TV and radio ads. But Representative Thomas R. Suozzi, a Long Island moderate, and Jumaane D. Williams, New York City’s left-leaning public advocate, are seeking to capitalize on New Yorkers’ frustrations with crime and soaring inflation to end Ms. Hochul’s governorship earlier than she would like.
ImageGov. Kathy Hochul at a rally in Brooklyn on Saturday.Credit…Kirsten Luce for The New York Times
New York Republicans plan to magnify those issues this fall, when they will test whether an outstanding national environment for their party can help end a nearly two-decade losing streak in races for statewide office. But first, primary voters must settle an increasingly bitter four-way G.O.P. contest.
Representative Lee Zeldin of Long Island is the pick of his party’s leadership, but he is fighting to hold on against incessant attacks from his rivals, most notably Andrew Giuliani, the MAGA-branded son of former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, and Harry Wilson, a corporate turnaround specialist. Rob Astorino, a former Westchester County executive who was the party’s 2014 nominee for governor, is also running.
Understand the 2022 Midterm Elections
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Why are these midterm races so important? This year’s races could tip the balance of power in Congress to Republicans, hobbling President Biden’s agenda for the second half of his term. They will also test former President Donald J. Trump’s role as a G.O.P. kingmaker. Here’s what to know:
What are the midterm elections? Midterms take place two years after a presidential election, at the midpoint of a presidential term — hence the name. This year, a lot of seats are up for grabs, including all 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 of 50 governorships.
What do the midterms mean for Biden? With slim majorities in Congress, Democrats have struggled to pass Mr. Biden’s agenda. Republican control of the House or Senate would make the president’s legislative goals a near-impossibility.
What are the races to watch? Only a handful of seats will determine if Democrats maintain control of the House over Republicans, and a single state could shift power in the 50-50 Senate. Here are 10 races to watch in the House and Senate, as well as several key governor’s contests.
When are the key races taking place? The primary gauntlet is already underway. Closely watched races in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia were held in May, with more taking place through the summer. Primaries run until September before the general election on Nov. 8.
Go deeper. What is redistricting and how does it affect the midterm elections? How does polling work? How do you register to vote? We’ve got more answers to your pressing midterm questions here.
The Democratic contest for lieutenant governor may be just as close. Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado remains the favorite, but Ana María Archila, a progressive activist, is riding a late wave of momentum, including an endorsement by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Diana Reyna, Mr. Suozzi’s running mate, is also in the race. The winner will face Alison Esposito, a Republican, who is unopposed.
Because of delays in the drawing of new congressional and legislative maps, the primaries for congressional and State Senate seats across New York State will be held on Aug. 23.
The left’s chance to make a mark.
The insurgent liberal group Justice Democrats has taken two high-profile losses, barely losing its second try at unseating Representative Henry Cuellar, a conservative Democrat, in South Texas, and failing to elect one of its most fiery candidates, Nina Turner, to a House seat in Cleveland.
The next shot for progressives comes Tuesday in Chicago’s Loop, where Kina Collins, a gun safety activist, is making a second pass at trying to unseat Representative Danny Davis, a veteran Democrat. Her run in 2020 was a bust; she lost by 46 percentage points. This time, however, Ms. Collins boasts the endorsement of The Chicago Tribune, which commended Mr. Davis, 80, but argued that “the time has come for new blood.”
Mr. Davis still has the backing of Democratic leaders including Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, widely considered a potential future House speaker.
ImageKina Collins speaking at a protest in Chicago against former Mayor Rahm Emanuel in 2021.Credit…Paul Beaty/Associated Press/Associated Press
Another Trump test in Mississippi.
No one could seriously question Representative Michael Guest’s conservative voting record, but the Mississippi Republican has one blemish in the eyes of Mr. Trump’s supporters, which pushed him into a runoff Tuesday and could usher him out of Congress: He voted last year in favor of an independent, bipartisan inquiry into the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol.
Mr. Guest’s primary challenger, Michael Cassidy, framed that vote as a sign of disloyalty to Mr. Trump. The former president did not make an endorsement, and neither candidate reached 50 percent on June 7. But Mr. Cassidy’s first-place finish drew plaudits from some leading Trump allies, including Stephen K. Bannon, his pardoned former chief strategist. The following day, Mr. Cassidy appeared on Mr. Bannon’s “War Room” podcast, during which Mr. Bannon referred to the incumbent, Mr. Guest, as “one of these lame never-Trump guys.”
ImageRepresentative Michael Guest at a campaign event in Magee, Miss., in June.Credit…Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press
Also facing a runoff in Mississippi on Tuesday is Representative Steven M. Palazzo, who was vulnerable not on ideology but on ethics. The Office of Congressional Ethics in Washington is investigating him for what it called a “concerning pattern” of potentially misusing campaign funds, including spending more than $80,000 on a $1.2 million waterfront house that Mr. Palazzo was trying to sell.
Mr. Palazzo’s opponent, the Jackson County sheriff, Mike Ezell, has pointedly emphasized his 42-year record “tackling corruption and government wrongdoing.” In a tweet addressed to Mr. Palazzo, Mr. Ezell wrote, “That’s something you wouldn’t happen to know about, would you?”
Oklahoma starts to choose its next senator.
The retirement of Senator Inhofe, a veteran conservative, opens a coveted Senate seat in a reliably Republican state. That has brought out a host of would-be successors, including Representative Markwayne Mullin; Scott Pruitt, former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency; T.W. Shannon, a former speaker of the Oklahoma House; and Luke Holland, Mr. Inhofe’s former chief of staff.
Neil Vigdor contributed reporting.
Source: nytimes.com
