Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden by six percentage points among likely voters in a new national survey. Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, an uptick since the debate.
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THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
June 28 to July 2
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were
Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
Biden
Trump
43%
49
Likely
voters
Margin of error
41
49
Registered
voters
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
June 28 to July 2
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
Biden
Trump
43%
49
Likely voters
Margin of error
49
41
Registered voters
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
June 28 to July 2
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were
Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
Biden
Trump
43%
49
Likely
voters
Margin of error
41
49
Registered
voters
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,532 voters nationwide conducted from June 28 to July 2, 2024.
By Lily Boyce
By Shane Goldmacher
July 3, 2024, 1:30 p.m. ET
Donald J. Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential race has widened after President Biden’s fumbling debate performance last week, as concerns that Mr. Biden is too old to govern effectively rose to new heights among Democrats and independent voters, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed.
Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a three-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. It is the largest lead Mr. Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Mr. Trump leads by even more among registered voters, 49 percent to 41 percent.
Doubts about Mr. Biden’s age and acuity are widespread and growing. A majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll — including Black voters and those who said they will still be voting for him — believe Mr. Biden, 81, is too old to be effective.
Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, up five percentage points since the debate. Concerns about Mr. Biden’s age have spiked eight percentage points among Democrats in the week since the debate, to 59 percent. The share of independent voters who said they felt that way rose to 79 percent, nearly matching the Republican view of the president.
How polls have changed since the debate
| Margin Pre-Debate |
Margin Post-Debate |
|
|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena Among likely voters |
Trump +3 | Trump +6 |
| Times/Siena Among registered voters |
Trump +6 | Trump +9 |
| Polling average Among all recent polls |
Trump +1 | Trump +3 |
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 1:15 p.m. Eastern.
By Lily Boyce
The poll offers early empirical evidence of what many Democrats have feared: That Mr. Biden’s faltering debate performance has further imperiled his chances against Mr. Trump this fall. Some Democratic lawmakers and donors are raising questions about Mr. Biden’s fitness following his struggles to finish his thoughts or articulate a vision during the debate, and they are demanding that Mr. Biden prove for a skeptical public that he is capable of serving until he is 86.
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Do you think Joe Biden should remain the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Democratic nominee for president?
Democrats Pre-debate 52% Remain nominee 45 Different nominee Post-debate 48% 47 Independents Pre-debate 21% 72 Post-debate 22% 72
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Do you think Donald Trump should remain the Republican Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Republican nominee for president?
Republicans Pre-debate 80% Remain nominee 17 Different nominee Post-debate 83% 13 Independents Pre-debate 31% 64 Post-debate 35% 58
Note: The unlabeled segment refers to the share of voters who did not respond or who said they didn’t know.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 1,532 registered voters nationwide conducted from June 20 to 25, 2024, and from June 28 to July 2, 2024.
By Lily Boyce
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Source: nytimes.com
