New polls from The New York Times and Siena College showed Donald J. Trump ahead in Arizona and leading in tight races in Georgia and North Carolina.
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The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Sept. 17 to 21
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina
Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent margins of error.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 713 voters in Arizona, 682 voters in Georgia and 682 voters in North Carolina conducted from Sept. 17 to 21.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
By Adam NagourneyRuth Igielnik and Camille Baker
Sept. 23, 2024, 5:03 a.m. ET
Voters across the Sun Belt say that Donald J. Trump improved their lives when he was president — and worry that a Kamala Harris White House would not — setting the stage for an extraordinarily competitive contest in three key states, according to the latest polls from The New York Times and Siena College.
The polls found that Mr. Trump has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia, two states that he lost to President Biden in 2020. But in North Carolina, which has not voted for a Democrat since 2008, Ms. Harris trails Mr. Trump by just a narrow margin.
The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history.
[These latest Times/Siena results are some of the best results for Donald Trump in these states for weeks, Nate Cohn writes.]
Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are on the roster of seven battleground states where the focus of both the Trump and Harris campaigns has been since Labor Day. Ms. Harris has shown relative strength in several key states across the Midwest, including, most critically to her hopes of becoming president, Pennsylvania.
But Arizona, which Mr. Biden won by just over 10,400 votes in 2020, now presents a challenge for the Harris campaign. Mr. Trump is ahead, 50 percent to 45 percent, the poll found. A Times/Siena poll there in August found Ms. Harris leading by five percentage points. Latino voters, in particular, appear to have moved away from Ms. Harris, though a significant number — 10 percent — said they were now undecided. And Mr. Trump is benefiting from ticket splitting there: While Ms. Harris is trailing, the poll shows that the Democratic candidate for Senate is ahead.
How the polls compare
| Ariz. | Ga. | N.C. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena
Likely voters, Sept. 17 to 21 |
Trump +5 | Trump +4 | Trump +3 |
| Polling average
voters, As of 5 a.m. Sept. 23 |
Trump +2 | Trump +2 | Even |
| Emerson College/The Hill
Likely voters, Sept. 15–18 |
Trump +1 | Trump +2 | Even |
| Cygnal Political/Carolina Journal
Likely voters, Sept. 15–16 |
No poll | No poll | Even |
| Quinnipiac University
Likely voters, Sept. 4–8 |
No poll | Trump +3 | Harris +3 |
| Data Orbital/AZ Free News
Likely voters, Sept. 7–9 |
Even | No poll | No poll |
| CNN/SSRS
Likely voters, Aug. 23–29 |
Trump +5 | Harris +1 | No poll |
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 23.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
How polls have changed since the debate
| Arizona | Margin Pre-Debate |
Margin Post-Debate |
|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena Among likely voters in Arizona |
Harris +5 | Trump +5 |
| Polling average Among all recent Arizona polls |
Trump <1 | Trump +2 |
| Georgia | ||
|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena Among likely voters in Georgia |
Trump +4 | Trump +4 |
| Polling average Among all recent Georgia polls |
Trump <1 | Trump +2 |
| North Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena Among likely voters in North Carolina |
Harris +2 | Trump +3 |
| Polling average Among all recent North Carolina polls |
Harris +1 | Even |
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 23.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
ARIZ., GA., N.C.
Do you think Donald Trump’s policies have helped people like you, hurt people like you, or haven’t made much of a difference either way?
All respondents Helped 45% No difference 19 Hurt 34 Democrats 22 74 Independents 43% 25 30 Republicans 87% 11
Do you think Kamala Harris’s policies would help people like you, hurt people like you, or wouldn’t make much of a difference either way?
All respondents Help 37% No difference 18 Hurt 42 Democrats 84% 14 Independents 30% 24 42 Republicans 13 82
Note: The unlabeled segment in gray refers to the share of likely voters who did not respond or who said they didn’t know.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 713 voters in Arizona, 682 voters in Georgia and 682 voters in North Carolina conducted from Sept. 17 to 21.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
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Source: nytimes.com
