Trump and Harris Neck and Neck After Summer Upheaval, Times/Siena Poll Finds

The survey finds that Donald J. Trump is retaining his support and that, on the eve of the debate, voters are unsure they know enough about where Kamala Harris stands.

Listen to this article · 10:36 min Learn more

• Share full article

The New York Times/Siena College Poll

Sept. 3 to 6

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent the margin of error.

The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 points.

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,695 voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 3 to 6.

By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park

By Jonathan Weisman and Ruth Igielnik

Sept. 8, 2024, 5:03 a.m. ET

Former President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris enter the homestretch of the campaign in a tight race, and with their only scheduled debate looming on Tuesday, Ms. Harris faces a sizable share of voters who still say they need to know more about her.

A national poll of likely voters by The New York Times and Siena College found Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris, 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll’s three-percentage-point margin of error and largely unchanged from a Times/Siena poll taken in late July just after President Biden dropped his re-election bid. Mr. Trump may have had a rough month following the president’s departure and amid the burst of excitement that Ms. Harris brought Democrats, but the poll suggests his support remains remarkably resilient.

[The result is surprising, Nate Cohn writes. But it’s also plausible the poll is the first to capture a shift back toward Donald Trump.]

The national results are in line with polls in the seven battleground states that will decide the presidential election, where Ms. Harris is tied with Mr. Trump or holds slim leads, according to New York Times polling averages. Taken together, they show a tight race that remains either candidate’s to win or lose.

New York Times swing state polling averages

Wisconsin ›

Sept. 40% 50% Trump Trump 47% Harris Harris 49%

Michigan ›

40% 50% Kennedy Kennedy 5% Trump Trump 46% Harris Harris 48%

Pennsylvania ›

Sept. 40% 50% Trump Trump 48% Harris Harris 49%

Nevada ›

40% 50% Trump Trump 48% Harris Harris 48%

Georgia ›

Sept. 40% 50% Trump Trump 48% Harris Harris 48%

North Carolina ›

40% 50% Kennedy Kennedy 3% Harris Harris 48% Trump Trump 48%

Arizona ›

Sept. 40% 50% Harris Harris 48% Trump Trump 48%

By The New York Times

Only a little over eight weeks remain in the shortest presidential election in modern American history. Both candidates have scant opportunity to shift the electorate, but for Mr. Trump, opinions are largely fixed. Ms. Harris is still unknown to many.

How the Times/Siena poll compares

Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 8.

By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park

The New York Times/Siena College Poll

Sept. 3 to 6

Regardless of how you might vote, do you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following issues:

Harris Trump

Abortion

Democracy

The economy

Immigration

Among likely voters. Question wording has been condensed.

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,695 voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 3 to 6.

By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park

We are having trouble retrieving the article content.

Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.

Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.

Thank you for your patience while we verify access.

Already a subscriber? Log in.

Want all of The Times? Subscribe.

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

Source: nytimes.com