The EU’s migration quick fixes carry long term costs

Dear readers,

Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition, we look at the long-term consequences of the EU’s decision to pursue cash-for-migrant-control deals with Tunisia and, in the future, other North African states.

Editor’s Take: The EU’s migration quick fixes carry long-term costs

The EU has made a conscious choice for quick fixes on migration control with North Africa. National capitals are lapping it up but in the long term, consequences will be to the EU’s disadvantage.

It is a well-established pattern that was already applied with Turkey, and now it has been applied again, even in a more ‘holistic’ way, as the European Commission might say.

With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the EU sealed a deal in which in exchange for €6 billion, Turkey contained the migration flux mainly coming from Syria, a country devastated by civil war since 2011.

In October 2019, Erdoğan, whose authoritarian ruling style is well-known, warned the EU not to intervene in the war he started with the Kurds in Northern Syria or he would open the borders to migrants.

Belarus pursued similar tactics in early 2022, before the war in Ukraine started, when the country organised a wide range of flights from Iraq to Belarus and then bussed the people to the border with the EU.

This practice was described by the EU as ‘weaponisation of migration’.

This dystopian way to manage migration is the product of EU countries’ insistence on closing the borders to migrants.

Instead of rethinking the concept of EU borders and working on a migration policy that is sustainable for EU border management in the long term, European countries are continuing to seek quick fixes.

The latest evidence is the EU-Tunisia deal sealed last Sunday (16 July).

In this case, the EU will give money to Tunisia to reinforce its coastguard, border management and speed up returns and, in addition, additional cash to prop up its economy. None of this is conditional on respect for human rights.

There is little oversight over how close to €700 million will be spent, and no means of deterring the human trafficking industry. In the meantime, civil society groups have reported that thousands of migrants have been dumped at the Libyan border by the Tunisian authorities in recent weeks.

The fundamental flaw of this strategy is that the EU is pursuing policies based on a principle that history has shown to be ontologically wrong: that it is possible to prevent people from moving from one place to another. It also affirms that a certain category of people, the so-called ‘migrants’, cannot have access to freedom of movement.

Still, people will continue to move. Perhaps the Tunisian corridor will be less walked and this means traffickers will adapt their business to other routes, which will be more profitable and at the same time more dangerous.

The Libyan Interior Ministry in Tripoli recently published a series of propaganda videos of the Libyan police ‘rescuing’ migrants in the desert after they were deported there by the Tunisian authorities, though their fate is uncertain.

For the moment, however, EU leaders have made it clear that they do not care.

Who is Electioneering

Spain on a knife edge ahead of crucial elections. Voters go to the polls in Spain this weekend for general elections that are on a knife edge. Opinion polls suggest that the centre-right Partido Popular will top the poll ahead of the governing socialist PSOE. However, it is unclear whether the PP will be able to form a government with the far-right VOX party. The new green-left Sumar party is likely to finish third, opening the possibility for another left-leaning coalition. Should neither major party be able to form a coalition, a second snap election could be required in September.

Capitals-in-brief

Italian coastguard violates government decree on NGOs operating at sea. The Italian coastguard has assigned successive rescues to NGOs in international waters between Tunisia and Sicily in recent weeks, violating an Italian governmental decree which stipulates only one rescue can be performed before disembarkation.

The Cyprus question. Nicosia wants to appoint a special envoy for Cyprus in the hope of restarting talks with Turkey and moving toward a settlement on the divided island, using the EU accession process as an incentive, EURACTIV understands.

Commission takes on Poland’s Tribunal. The European Commission confirmed on Wednesday (19 July) that it has filed a complaint against Poland over the legitimacy of its constitutional tribunal, which undermines the primacy of EU law, in response to several Tribunal rulings that the EU treaties failed to comply with the Polish constitution.

Police search properties linked to Belgian MEP in Qatargate probe. Police searched six locations linked to Socialist MEP Marie Arena and her family on Wednesday (19 July) as part of the investigation into the Qatargate cash-for-influence corruption scandal in the European Parliament.

Inside the institutions

EU to pay Tunisia €785m in 2023 as part of ‘cash for migrants’ deal. The European Commission will provide €675 million to Tunisia this year as part of its new ‘cash for migrant control’ deal with the North African country, EURACTIV has learned from a senior Commission official.

US economist steps back from top Commission job. US economist Fiona Scott Morton has withdrawn from the post of the European Commission’s chief economist on competition, following a backlash led by MEPs and France against her status as a non-European and former big tech lobbyist. Commission Vice President Margrethe Vestager confirmed that she had accepted Scott Morton’s decision “with regret”.

MEPs end Strasbourg building saga. MEPs voted to lease and potentially buy a building next to the European Parliament in Strasbourg following a lengthy and bitter battle between the Parliament’s leaders.

Striking back against surveillance. The European Parliament’s civil liberties committee has adopted a series of new safeguards against the surveillance of journalists as part of the proposed Media Freedom Act, including details of spyware used against them, and given the possibility to challenge the decision and seek redress via a judge.

What we are reading

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez must pull off an unlikely hat-trick in this weekend’s elections, writes the Guardian’s Simon Tisdall, save his own career, hold his progressive coalition intact and slay the far-right.

What comes after ‘Teflon Mark’, asks Megan Gibson in the New Statesman, as Mark Rutte’s era of managerial government comes to an end.

Vladimir Putin has conscripted the Orthodox Church to his Russian nationalist project in Ukraine, argues Elle Hardy for Unherd.

The next week in politics

The European Parliament has now started its summer recess and will return for committee week on 28 August.

However, school is not yet out for the summer for the Council of Ministers. Agriculture and fisheries ministers will gather next Tuesday (25 July), followed by informal meetings of competitiveness and health ministers on Thursday and Friday (27/28), and defence ministers next weekend (29/30 July).

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83