Top U.S. intelligence officials told Congress that the Russian leader had underestimated Ukrainian resolve and Western cohesion but was “doubling down” to achieve his goals.
William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, said Mr. Putin’s increasing isolation and insulation from conflicting views make him “extremely difficult to deal with.”Credit…Michael A. McCoy for The New York Times
Germany, for example, suspended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, which would have allowed imported Russian natural gas to bypass Ukraine; sent weapons directly to Ukraine; and expanded its defense budget.
“He’s been unsettled by Western reaction and allied resolve, particularly some of the decisions that the German government has taken,” Mr. Burns said. “I think he’s been unsettled by the performance of his own military.”
Russia-Ukraine War: Key Things to Know
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Russian oil imports. President Biden banned Russian oil, natural gas and coal imports into the United States. The move, which effectively shuts off the relatively small flow of Russian fuel into the country, could further rattle global energy markets and raise gas prices.
A halt to Russian sales. After days of seeming reluctance to take a stance over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, three high-profile American food and beverage companies — McDonald’s, Coca-Cola and Starbucks — said they were pausing operations in Russia.
The key cities. Ukrainian military and civilian soldiers continued to bog down Russian forces, protecting the borders of key cities and inflicting heavy losses against the larger and better equipped Russian army.
A humanitarian crisis. Indiscriminate Russian shelling has trapped Ukrainian civilians and left tens of thousands without food, water, power or heat in besieged cities. The United Nations said that the number of refugees who have fled Ukraine has reached two million.
General Berrier said he had low confidence in reports of Russian casualties, but put Moscow’s losses at 2,000 to 4,000.
Mr. Burns said the American government was keeping a close eye on Mr. Putin’s domestic support. With state-controlled media dominating what the Russian public hears and independent reporting on the invasion essentially being made illegal, it will take time for Russians to “absorb the consequences” of Mr. Putin’s actions.
But, over time, funerals of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine will have an impact, Mr. Burns said.
“You also see, in relatively small numbers, a lot of very courageous Russians out on the street protesting,” Mr. Burns said. “Something like 13 or 14,000 have been arrested since then, which is not a small thing in a deeply repressive society like Russia.”
Other governments said another crucial factor is whether Mr. Putin’s support within the military erodes. Before the invasion, Russian officers complained about the plan, according to intercepts obtained by Western intelligence. The discontent with the Kremlin’s planning now continues, the European diplomat said.
The intelligence community will expand its information war with Russia, working to expose Moscow’s war crimes and atrocities in Ukraine, Ms. Haines said. American spy agencies were working with other agencies to document Russian actions in Ukraine, including war crimes, and to hold the perpetrators accountable.
“Russian forces are at the very least operating with reckless disregard for the safety of noncombatants, as Russian units launch artillery and airstrikes into urban areas as they have done in cities across Ukraine,” Ms. Haines said.
Such an information campaign to expose Russia’s attacks on civilians and other missteps would build on the intelligence released before the invasion, which sought to expose Russia’s war plans, rally allied support for tough financial sanctions and deny Moscow the chance to create a false pretext for an attack.
ImageMr. Putin is determined to succeed in Ukraine, and will try to double down and use ever more brutal tactics, U.S. intelligence officials said.Credit…Andrey Gorshkov/Sputnik, via Getty Images
Gen. Paul M. Nakasone, the director of the National Security Agency, said that the United States had closely tracked three or four Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine, and that reinforced Ukrainian defenses had helped blunt wider Russian cyberattacks.
“In terms of why they haven’t done more, I think that’s obviously some of the work that the Ukrainians have done, some of the challenges that the Russians have encountered and some of the work that others have been able to do to prevent their actions,” General Nakasone said.
Source: nytimes.com
