Sam Brown, Republican Candidate for Senate in Nevada, Struggles for Traction

Mr. Brown, who has never held elected office, has found himself outpaced by Senator Jacky Rosen, the low-key and well-financed Democratic incumbent. A debate Thursday night presents a key test.

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Sam Brown, the Republican candidate for Senate in Nevada, is trailing the incumbent, Senator Jacky Rosen, in polls and financial backing. Mr. Brown and Ms. Rosen will participate in a debate on Thursday night.

It was just two years ago that a vulnerable Democratic incumbent in Nevada was fending off an aggressive Republican challenge to her Senate seat.

With Senator Catherine Cortez Masto clinging to her job in 2022 by less than a percentage point, Senator Jacky Rosen seemed destined for a similarly razor-tight race this year. The political environment was even more difficult — she would be running for re-election in a presidential year, in a battleground state that has been trending to the right.

So Ms. Rosen struck early, using her financial might to pummel her Republican opponent, Sam Brown, deluging the state with ads that sought to define the lesser-known politician as an extremist on abortion who wants to cut Social Security benefits, all before he could find his footing or raise the funds to counter. Ahead of the candidates’ first and only televised debate Thursday night, she has opened up a nine-point lead in polling averages.

Mr. Brown’s struggle to gain ground raises the stakes for this face-off, where Republicans have said he must forcefully contrast himself with Ms. Rosen and lay the blame for Nevada’s sluggish economic recovery at her feet.

“There’s just a confluence of things that have put him in jeopardy, and the national Republicans know and the local Republicans know it,” Jon Ralston, the prominent Nevada political commentator, said of Mr. Brown. “It doesn’t mean in a certain set of circumstances he couldn’t pull off an upset, but it’s looking highly unlikely.”

Some Nevada Republicans have already begun privately bemoaning Mr. Brown’s chances, suggesting his campaign has made key missteps that allowed his opponent to cement her advantage. In interviews, a half-dozen G.O.P. strategists and politicians expressed skepticism about Mr. Brown’s chances, many insisting on anonymity to avoid badmouthing a fellow Republican or damaging his prospects.

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