Pennsylvania Republicans Lag Democrats in Early Mail Ballot Requests

Encouraging voters to cast mail ballots — and cast them early — benefits political campaigns. But former President Donald J. Trump’s skepticism has hurt Republican efforts in a key state.

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Campaign signs leading to an event where former President Donald J. Trump appeared in Smithton, Pa., last week.

In the past two election cycles, Republicans have been far less eager to vote by mail than Democrats — and their candidates have suffered because of it. This year, Republicans made Pennsylvania their target for flipping the trend, pledging more than $10 million to persuade G.O.P. voters there to vote by mail in the November election.

Early data from the secretary of state’s office shows that they still have a long way to go.

As of Monday, Democrats in the state had requested about 881,000 mail ballots, and Republicans had requested 373,000, less than half of the Democratic total and only about a quarter of the total mail ballots requested in the state.

While it is still early (the last day to request a mail ballot is Oct. 29), such a large gap shows it is extremely unlikely that Republicans will come close to parity with Democrats in voting by mail in Pennsylvania. It is stark evidence that former President Donald J. Trump’s longstanding criticism of mail-in voting — including misinformation that it is rife with fraud — has had a stubborn and lasting impact.

Political parties and campaigns have seen the benefit of getting their voters to cast mail ballots, and cast them early. It shrinks the universe of voters necessary to turn out for Election Day and removes any unpredictability that could come in just a single day of voting, from weather to long lines.

ImageAn official ballot return box outside the Philadelphia Ballot Processing Center, on the day of the U.S. midterm election in Philadelphia, in 2022.Credit…Ryan Collerd/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Take, for example, the Nevada race for Senate in 2022. Washoe County, home to Reno and the second largest population center in the swing state, was battered by snow, rain and wind on Election Day. Though Nevada mostly votes by mail, plenty of Republicans had vowed to vote in person, taking a lead from Mr. Trump. It is impossible to know who was prevented from voting, but Democrats were able to feel comfortable that more of their voters had already cast a ballot while Republicans scrambled.

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