The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the race from “tossup” to “lean Democrat” after polling shows Senator Jacky Rosen with a large edge.
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Senator Jacky Rosen is running for re-election in her Nevada seat for the first time.
Senator Jacky Rosen of Nevada, a Democrat seeking re-election to her seat for the first time, is pulling ahead of her Republican challenger, Sam Brown, in a race that was once considered a feasible pickup for the G.O.P., according to several polls released this week.
New polling from the Cook Political Report and the bipartisan team of BSG and GS Strategy Group, released Thursday morning, showed Ms. Rosen ahead of Mr. Brown by a wide margin. The race, once viewed as a tossup in Cook’s ratings, is now leaning toward the Democratic candidate.
The surveys, conducted between July 25 and Aug. 2, show Ms. Rosen with an 18-point lead. The groups’ surveys in May, before Mr. Brown had secured the G.O.P. nomination, showed Ms. Rosen leading a generic Republican candidate by a wide margin, although a poll from The New York Times and Siena College around that time showed a tight contest. The latest Cook poll aligns with results from a Republican strategist’s Nevada poll released on Tuesday showing Ms. Rosen with a 12-point lead.
Jessica Taylor, Cook’s editor for Senate and governor elections, said that Ms. Rosen’s 18-point lead was most likely an outlier but nonetheless showed a widening gap that Mr. Brown would have to overcome. She attributed the senator’s lead to heavy spending on advertising and to effective messaging about abortion and reproductive rights — a key issue for winning support from women and independent voters, from whom Ms. Rosen is drawing substantial support.
Although Mr. Brown has tried to soften his stance on abortion to appeal to independents, he previously supported a 20-week ban without exceptions for rape and incest. Democrats have seized the opportunity to brand him as an extremist in their public messaging.
“Brown has significant work to do,” Ms. Taylor said. “I wouldn’t say it’s insurmountable. I think it’s still very much a race that’s in play,” she added. “But we can’t deny the advantage that Rosen has clearly now opened up.”
The Cook polling data, nearly two weeks old when released, was taken before Vice President Kamala Harris announced Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota as her running mate at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket. When reached for comment, the Cook Political Report noted that its analysts wanted extra time to thoroughly dig into the data.
Notably, Ms. Rosen leads Mr. Brown by a wide margin, even as Cook’s presidential swing state poll found former President Donald J. Trump with a slim lead over Ms. Harris in Nevada. Ms. Taylor noted that she was surprised by just how much Ms. Rosen was outperforming Ms. Harris in her own race.
“At this point I would much rather be Rosen than Brown,” Ms. Taylor said. Although, she added, “in Nevada, you can take nothing for granted.”
Maya C. Miller covers Congress and is a Times Fellow, a program for journalists early in their careers. She is based in Washington. More about Maya C. Miller
See more on: U.S. Politics, Democratic Party, Republican Party
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Source: nytimes.com
