In Arizona, voters are narrowly divided on whether to elect a prominent Trump-backed election denier. In Pennsylvania, they appear likely to reject a similarly minded Republican.
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Kari Lake, left, has embraced former President Donald J. Trump’s false claims of a stolen 2020 election in her race against Katie Hobbs, right, who defended Arizona’s voting procedures as its secretary of state.
Republicans are running dead even or slightly ahead in races for governor that could change the future of elections in Arizona and end Democrats’ hold on Nevada, according to new polling of four key battleground states from The New York Times and Siena College.
The stakes are highest in Arizona, where the Republican nominee for governor, Kari Lake, has relentlessly pushed the false notion that the 2020 election was stolen. She is locked in a tight race with Katie Hobbs, the Democratic secretary of state, who rose to national prominence for defending Arizona’s 2020 voting procedures.
In Nevada, Joe Lombardo, a Republican sheriff who has walked a line between his party’s moderate and Trump wings, holds a slim lead over Gov. Steve Sisolak in a contest that could push the state firmly to the right, if Republicans win control of the Legislature.
Pennsylvania voters, however, appear likely to reject Doug Mastriano, a struggling far-right Republican who has vowed to transform the state’s election system, preferring by a wide margin Josh Shapiro, the state’s Democratic attorney general.
And in Georgia, voters are leaning toward upholding the status quo, narrowly preferring Gov. Brian Kemp, a staunch conservative who ignored former President Donald J. Trump’s appeals to help overturn the 2020 election in the state, to Stacey Abrams, the Democratic challenger.
ImageStacey Abrams trails Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia in the New York Times/Siena College poll.Credit…Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York TimesImageMr. Kemp has strong approval ratings in Georgia, which voted for Democrats in the 2020 election and the Senate races in early 2021.Credit…Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York Times
In all four states, the winners of next Tuesday’s elections will have substantial influence over an array of policies, including abortion rights and criminal justice. While the fate of elections and voting may carry the most import, voters indicated that they were most concerned about the economy.
Governor’s Races in Four States
If this November’s election for governor were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?
ROUNDED
MARGIN
Georgia
DEM.
REP.
+6
Abrams 45%
50% Kemp
REP.
Don’t know, refused or other
Nevada
+4
Sisolak 45%
49% Lombardo
REP.
Arizona
Even
Hobbs 48%
48% Lake
Pennsylvania
+13
Shapiro 53%
40% Mastriano
DEM.
ROUNDED
MARGIN
Georgia
DEM.
REP.
+6
Stacey Abrams 45%
50% Brian Kemp
REP.
Don’t know, refused or other
Nevada
+4
Steve Sisolak 45%
49% Joe Lombardo
REP.
Arizona
Katie Hobbs 48%
48% Kari Lake
Even
Pennsylvania
+13
Josh Shapiro 53%
40% Doug Mastriano
DEM.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls in four states. In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. In Georgia, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 27. In Pennsylvania, 620 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. In Nevada, 885 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 19 to Oct. 24. Figures are rounded.
By Lalena Fisher
“It’s really weird that a lot of the Democrats are so worried about abortion and they’re not worried about anything else, like the economy or the border or the prices of prescriptions,” said Melanie Long, 46, of Kingman, Ariz. She said that she had an abortion when she was 17 and would like the procedure to remain legal early in pregnancies but that she planned to vote a straight Republican ticket.
The mixed polling results in the four states — three of which backed Mr. Trump in 2016 and flipped to Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020 — reflect how candidates for governor often defy national political trends, with some voters separating contenders for state office from those for the U.S. Senate and House.
The State of the 2022 Midterm Elections
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.
- A Pivotal Test in Pennsylvania: A battle for blue-collar white voters is raging in President Biden’s birthplace, where Democrats have the furthest to fall and the most to gain.
- Governor’s Races: Democrats and Republicans are heading into the final stretch of more than a dozen competitive contests for governor. Some battleground races could also determine who controls the Senate.
- Biden’s Agenda at Risk: If Republicans capture one or both chambers of Congress, the president’s opportunities on several issues will shrink. Here are some major areas where the two sides would clash.
- Ohio Senate Race: Polls show Representative Tim Ryan competing within the margin of error against his G.O.P. opponent, J.D. Vance. Mr. Ryan said the race would be “the upset of the night,” but there is still a cold reality tilting against Democrats.
Among the four states, Arizona has the largest contingent of Republicans who say they would prefer candidates who subscribe to Mr. Trump’s lies about the 2020 election. That sentiment has buoyed the candidacy of Ms. Lake, a telegenic former local news anchor with a missionary zeal to promote her agenda. She and Ms. Hobbs are deadlocked at 48 percent each, the poll found.
It is a different story in Pennsylvania, with fewer stolen-election devotees and a Republican nominee, Mr. Mastriano, whose bare-bones campaign and refusal to engage with mainstream news outlets have left him struggling to amplify his message. The poll found Mr. Mastriano, a state senator, trailing Mr. Shapiro, 53 percent to 40 percent.
In Georgia, Mr. Kemp’s strong approval ratings have helped him take a lead of 50 percent to 45 percent over his Democratic rival, Stacey Abrams — though he would need to hit that mark or better next week to avoid a December runoff election.
In Nevada, Mr. Lombardo narrowly led Mr. Sisolak, a Democrat seeking a second term, 49 percent to 45 percent.
ImageThe Republican Party headquarters in Carson City, Nev. Republicans in the state are hoping to take back the governor’s office from Steve Sisolak, a Democrat seeking a second term.Credit…Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesImageDemocrats in Nevada are aiming to keep the perennial swing state blue, despite a tough environment for the party.Credit…Bridget Bennett for The New York Times
In all four states, the Democratic candidates for governor are outperforming President Biden’s approval rating, which is low in each place as well as nationally. In Arizona, Ms. Hobbs is running 12 points ahead of Mr. Biden, while in Pennsylvania, Mr. Shapiro is doing 11 points better.
How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.
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Mr. Shapiro has built his lead with support from voters who backed Mr. Trump in recent presidential elections and are planning to vote this year for Dr. Mehmet Oz, the state’s Republican candidate for Senate. Thirteen percent of Dr. Oz’s supporters in the poll said they also planned to vote for Mr. Shapiro.
Todd Rutter, 59, of Uniontown, Pa., who worked as a call center supervisor and is now on disability, said he usually voted for Republicans. He backed Mr. Trump in 2016 but skipped the presidential election in 2020, he said, because he was dissatisfied with both of the major parties’ candidates.
Now Mr. Rutter, who said he watched all of the televised hearings by the congressional panel investigating the Capitol riot, said he was voting for Dr. Oz and Mr. Shapiro, both of whom he views as centrist candidates who would honor the results of their elections.
“As far as Mastriano goes for governor, I think he’s too extreme,” Mr. Rutter said. “I think he’s a wing nut, to put it bluntly, and I think Josh Shapiro is just more even-keeled, and I think he would do a decent job.”
And while all four states have been the subject of nearly two years of false claims by Republicans that Mr. Biden’s victories in each one were illegitimate, only a minority of voters wanted to support a candidate who thought Mr. Biden won. A majority said that they did not care or preferred a candidate who says Mr. Trump won.
In races for secretary of state, the polls also found that voters in Arizona and Nevada, where the Republican nominees have espoused many false claims about the 2020 election, prefer their Democratic opponents. However, many voters were undecided or did not know the candidates, suggesting that the races could swing the other way.
ImageJoseph Lombardo, the Republican candidate for Nevada governor and the sheriff of Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, at a rally in early October in Minden, Nev.Credit…Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesImageMr. Sisolak, Nevada’s incumbent governor, narrowly trailed Mr. Lombardo in the Times/Siena poll. Credit…Mikayla Whitmore for The New York Times
Adrian Fontes, the Democratic candidate for secretary of state in Arizona, leads the Republican nominee, Mark Finchem — who, like Mr. Mastriano, was near the Capitol on Jan. 6 — by 47 percent to 40 percent.
Warning signs remain for Mr. Fontes, beyond the large number of undecided voters. Arizona has among the highest share of likely voters, 19 percent, who say they want to vote for a candidate who falsely says Mr. Trump won the 2020 election.
“There was just all kinds of shenanigans. Whether or not too much of it is provable, I don’t know,” said Susan Elliott, a work-force development specialist from Tucson, Ariz., who said she was enthusiastically backing Ms. Lake and Mr. Finchem. “There’s already people serving prison sentences for fraud from the 2020 election. And there are probably people who are already out because they were convicted a while ago.”
While there were isolated prosecutions of voters who violated election law, no one has been convicted, let alone jailed, for widespread fraud stemming from the 2020 election.
In Nevada, 21 percent of likely voters say they would prefer a candidate who believes Mr. Trump won the 2020 election, and 34 percent say the issue does not matter. Only 3 percent of Republicans prefer a candidate who says Mr. Biden won, the smallest share among Republicans in any of the four states.
Pamela Secrest, 63, an account manager who works remotely from Silver Springs, Nev., voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 to help oust Mr. Trump, but she is very unhappy with the president’s performance and the direction of the country.
Ms. Secrest said that she had already cast her absentee ballot for Mr. Lombardo, the Republican candidate for governor. She said that she had also voted for Cisco Aguilar, the Democrat running for secretary of state against Jim Marchant, an election denier who has organized a group of like-minded Republicans running for top election posts around the country.
“I just don’t buy in to any kind of conspiracy,” Ms. Secrest said. “There’s always going to be some fraudulent votes cast but not enough to change the election.”
In Georgia, Mr. Kemp’s advantage over Ms. Abrams rests on his strength with men. The governor has an 16-point advantage with men, while Ms. Abrams has just a five-point lead with women, who make up a slightly larger share of the state’s electorate.
ImageJosh Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s attorney general and Democratic nominee for governor, center, with his running mate for lieutenant governor, Austin Davis, left, in Philadelphia.Credit…Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesImageDoug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, has trailed heavily in the polls, including the new Times/Siena survey.Credit…Mark Makela/Getty Images
Ms. Abrams has spent much of her campaign trying to narrow the gap with men, in particular Black men, by holding a series of events, “Stacey and the Fellas,” directed at them.
But it’s not clear that her efforts will be enough to catch up with Mr. Kemp.
Yusuf Ali, a railroad worker from Spalding County, Ga., about an hour south of Atlanta, said that while his wife, a schoolteacher, backed Ms. Abrams, he would be voting for Mr. Kemp for a second time.
“She hasn’t made Black men a priority or have any policies that would actually help Black men or men in general,” said Mr. Ali, 37, who is Black and also plans to vote for Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat.
Among Democrats, Mr. Trump’s presence continues to generate political energy and fear.
Catherine Dallaire, a retired high school arts teacher from North Las Vegas, Nev., was never involved in politics and was a registered independent until Mr. Trump’s presidency spurred her to open her home to staff members working for Senator Elizabeth Warren’s 2020 Democratic presidential campaign.
Now Ms. Dallaire, 56, said she was planning to vote a straight Democratic ticket in Nevada, backing Governor Sisolak for re-election and Mr. Aguilar for secretary of state. Republican denial of the 2020 results, Ms. Dallaire said, means that she will not switch her party registration back to independent, as she would like to do.
“It is very scary,” she said. “I was really disturbed the other day when I saw in Arizona that they actually had people by the ballot boxes, trying to monitor them.”
Cross-tabs and methodology are available here.
Source: nytimes.com