In a survey taken after President Biden stepped aside, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race separated by a single percentage point among likely voters.
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The New York Times/Siena College Poll
July 22 to 24
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
Likely voters
Registered voters
Shaded areas represent margins of error.
The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.4 points. For registered voters it is plus or minus 3.3 points.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 1,142 voters nationwide conducted from July 22 to 24, 2024.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
By Shane GoldmacherRuth Igielnik and Camille Baker
- July 25, 2024Updated 3:21 p.m. ET
Vice President Kamala Harris begins a 103-day sprint for the presidency in a virtual tie with former President Donald J. Trump, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as her fresh candidacy was quickly reuniting a Democratic Party that had been deeply fractured over President Biden.
Just days after the president abandoned his campaign under pressure from party leaders, the poll showed Democrats rallying behind Ms. Harris as the presumptive nominee, with only 14 percent saying they would prefer another option. An overwhelming 70 percent of Democratic voters said they wanted the party to speedily consolidate behind her rather than engage in a more competitive and drawn-out process.
Her swift reassembling of the Democratic coalition appeared to help narrow Mr. Trump’s significant advantage over Mr. Biden of only a few weeks ago. Ms. Harris was receiving 93 percent support from Democrats, the same share that Mr. Trump was getting from Republicans.
Overall, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in a head-to-head match. That is a marked improvement for Democrats when compared to the Times/Siena poll in early July that showed Mr. Biden behind by six percentage points, in the aftermath of the poor debate performance that eventually drove him from the race.
Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. He had led among registered voters by nine percentage points over Mr. Biden in the post-debate poll.
The survey provides a snapshot of the presidential race in the middle of one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in modern American history. Democrats suddenly have a new nominee. And, less than two weeks after Mr. Trump survived an assassination attempt, his favorability rating rose to the highest level it has ever been in a national New York Times survey.
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of …
Donald Trump February 44% Favorable 54 Unfavorable July 48% 51 Kamala Harris February 36% 55 July 46% 49 Joe Biden February 38% 59 July 43% 55
Notes: The unlabeled segment refers to the share of voters who did not respond, who said they didn’t know or who said they had not heard of the person. Question wording is condensed. “Favorable” includes the responses “somewhat favorable” and ”very favorable,” and ”unfavorable” includes the responses “somewhat unfavorable” and ”very unfavorable.”
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of registered voters nationwide conducted from February 25 to 28, 2024, and from July 22 to 24, 2024.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
July 22 to 24
Percent of respondents who said these traits described each candidate “very well” or “somewhat well”
Harris Trump
Can unify the country
Cares about people like you
Has the temperament to be an effective president
Is a strong leader
Is intelligent
Will bring about the right kind of change
Note: Numbers are rounded.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 1,142 registered voters nationwide conducted from July 22 to 24, 2024.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
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Source: nytimes.com
