New surveys of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania taken this week offer the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for the Democratic Party since President Biden abandoned his re-election bid.
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The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Aug. 5 to 9
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent margins of error.
The margin of sampling error for the Michigan poll plus or minus 4.8 points. For Pennsylvania, it is plus or minus 4.2 points. For Wisconsin, it is plus or minus 4.3 points.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 619 voters in Michigan conducted from Aug. 5 to 8, 693 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from Aug. 6 to 9, and 661 voters in Wisconsin conducted from Aug. 5 to 8.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
By Lisa Lerer and Ruth Igielnik
Aug. 10, 2024, 5:04 a.m. ET
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it.
Ms. Harris is ahead of Mr. Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from Aug. 5 to 9.
The polls, some of the first high-quality surveys in those states since Mr. Biden announced he would no longer run for re-election, come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden.
[On question after question, the poll finds that voters don’t seem to have major reservations about Kamala Harris, Nate Cohn writes.]
While the reshaped race is still in its volatile early weeks, Democrats are now in a notably stronger position in these three battleground states that have long been key to the party’s victories — or defeats. Still, the results show vulnerabilities for Ms. Harris. Voters prefer Mr. Trump when it comes to whom they trust to handle the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race.
Ms. Harris’s numbers are an upswing for Democrats from Mr. Biden’s performance in those states, even before his much-maligned debate showing that destabilized his candidacy. In May, Mr. Biden was virtually tied with Mr. Trump in Times/Siena polling in Wisconsin and Michigan. Polling conducted before and after the debate in July showed Mr. Trump with a narrow lead in Pennsylvania.
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Mich., Pa., Wis.
In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?
All May 58% Satisfied 40 Not satisfied Aug. 73% 25 Democrats May 60% 39 Aug. 87% 12 Independents May 45% 53 Aug. 60% 37 Republicans May 74% 25 Aug. 79% 19
Notes: The unlabeled segment refers to the share of voters who did not respond or said they didn’t know. “Satisfied” includes the responses “somewhat satisfied” and “very satisfied,” and “not satisfied” includes the responses “not too satisfied” and “not at all satisfied.”
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 693 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from Aug. 6 to 9, 619 voters in Michigan conducted from Aug. 5 to 8, and 661 voters in Wisconsin conducted from Aug. 5 to 8.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Mich., Pa., Wis.
Percentage of registered voters who said these traits described each candidate “very well” or “somewhat well”
Harris Trump
Has a clear vision for the country
Has the temperament to be an effective president
Is honest
Is intelligent
Will bring about the right kind of change
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 619 voters in Michigan conducted from Aug. 5 to 8, 693 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from Aug. 6 to 9, and 661 voters in Wisconsin conducted from Aug. 5 to 8.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
How the Times/Siena polls compare
| Mich. | Pa. | Wis. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena
Likely voters Aug. 5–9 |
Harris +4 | Harris +4 | Harris +4 |
| Times/Siena
Registered voters Aug. 5–9 |
Trump +2 | Harris +3 | Harris +5 |
| Polling average
voters As of 5 a.m. Aug. 10 |
Harris +1 | Even | Harris +2 |
| Marquette Law School
Likely voters July 24–Aug. 1 |
No poll | No poll | Harris +1 |
| Competitiveness Coalition/Public Opinion Strategies
Likely voters July 23–29 |
Even | Harris +3 | Harris +2 |
| Fox News/Beacon & Shaw
Registered voters July 22–24 |
Even | Even | Trump +1 |
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Aug. 10.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
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Source: nytimes.com
