Kamala Harris holds an edge over Donald J. Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. But new surveys found that the race remains a tossup nationally.
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The New York Times
Philadelphia Inquirer
Siena College Poll
Sept. 11 to 16
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
National
Pennsylvania
Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent margins of error.
For the national poll, the margin of error is plus or minus 3 points. For the Pennsylvania poll, it is plus or minus 3.8 points.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
By Shane Goldmacher and Ruth Igielnik
Sept. 19, 2024, 5:04 a.m. ET
Kamala Harris overwhelmingly impressed voters in her debate with Donald J. Trump, a new set of polls from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College found, but she has failed so far to seize a decisive advantage in the presidential campaign.
The race is deadlocked nationally. Yet in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris has a lead of four percentage points — a slight edge that is unchanged since early August. She has reassembled much of the core Democratic coalition in the state, winning the support of Black voters, younger voters and women there.
[Combined, the two polls are a bit of a puzzle, Nate Cohn writes.]
The vice president received far stronger reviews of her debate performance last week than did Mr. Trump, with 67 percent of U.S. likely voters saying she did well compared with 40 percent for him. A majority of voters in every racial group, age bracket and education level — even white voters without a college degree, who are typically the former president’s most loyal demographic — gave her a positive review.
The New York Times
Philadelphia Inquirer
Siena College Poll
Sept. 11 to 16
How well do you think Kamala Harris did in the presidential debate?
All respondents Well 67 Not well 29 Democrats 96 2 Independents 68 25 Republicans 38 59
How well do you think Donald Trump did in the presidential debate?
All respondents Well 40 Not well 56 Democrats 5 92 Independents 39 55 Republicans 77 21
Results are among likely voters who watched or heard about the debate. “Well” includes the responses “very well” and “somewhat well,” and “not well” includes the responses “not too well” and “not well at all.” The unlabeled segment refers to the share of voters who did not respond or who said they didn’t know.
Based on a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 2,437 voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 11 to 16.
By Lily Boyce
But even that was not enough to jostle a race that appears destined to become a battle of inches this fall, after a summer of tumult and upheaval.
Nationally, Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris are knotted at 47 percent. In Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris leads, 50 percent to 46 percent. The surveys were conducted almost entirely before the second apparent assassination attempt against Mr. Trump last Sunday.
How the polls compare
| National | Pa. | |
|---|---|---|
| Times/Inquirer/Siena
Likely voters Sept. 11–16 |
Even | Harris +4 |
| Polling average
voters As of 5 a.m. Sept. 19 |
Harris +3 | Harris +2 |
| Fox News/Beacon & Shaw
Likely voters Sept. 13–16 |
Harris +2 | No poll |
| Ipsos/ABC News
Likely voters Sept. 11–13 |
Harris +6 | No poll |
| AtlasIntel
Likely voters Sept. 11–12 |
Trump +3 | No poll |
| Ipsos/Reuters
Registered voters Sept. 11–12 |
Harris +5 | No poll |
| Marist College
Likely voters Sept. 12–17 |
No poll | Even |
| Quinnipiac University
Likely voters Sept. 12–16 |
No poll | Harris +5 |
| Suffolk University/USA Today
Likely voters Sept. 11–14 |
No poll | Harris +3 |
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 19.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
How polls have changed since the debate
| National | Margin Pre-Debate |
Margin Post-Debate |
|---|---|---|
| Times/Inquirer/Siena Among likely voters nationwide |
Trump +2 | Even |
| Polling average Among all recent national polls |
Harris +3 | Harris +3 |
| Pennsylvania | Margin Pre-Debate |
Margin Post-Debate |
|---|---|---|
| Times/Inquirer/Siena Among likely voters in Pennsylvania |
Harris +4 | Harris +4 |
| Polling average Among all recent Pennsylvania polls |
Harris <1 | Harris +2 |
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 19.
By Lily Boyce
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Source: nytimes.com
