Campaigns Battle Cold and Complacency in Final Turnout Push in Iowa

Republicans once had high hopes for turnout in Monday’s caucuses. But the brutal weather and Donald Trump’s dominance have cooled predictions.

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Campaigns are struggling to predict how many voters may show up to caucus during dangerous winter weather in Iowa.

Nikki Haley’s team predicts Iowans will brave brutal weather to caucus for her. Aides to Ron DeSantis say the subzero temperatures give their candidate an edge because he has the biggest team knocking on doors. And the Trump team says they don’t worry about the cold — former President Donald J. Trump’s supporters will “walk through glass” to caucus for him.

The truth: No one really knows what to expect on Monday night when Iowans become the first to weigh in on the 2024 presidential election. An already unpredictable and quirky process is even more so this year, thanks to dangerously cold weather and an unusually uncompetitive contest.

Until recently, both the Trump and DeSantis teams had been privately preparing for an enormous turnout of more than 200,000 caucusgoers, a figure that would eclipse the party’s previous record of 187,000 in 2016. But as the winter storm blew in last week, nobody from any of the leading campaigns wanted to attach their names to a firm prediction.

The National Weather Service forecast subzero temperatures in Des Moines, with wind chills dropping to as low as minus 30 degrees on Monday.

This year’s caucuses are unusual for many reasons beyond the weather. A contest known for elevating long shots has been dominated by the former president for months. What suspense is building is not about the winner, but about the margin of victory and who claims second place.

That has given the affair a subdued, sedated feel. Interviews with voters across the state reveal many are unhappy with their choices, and feel that they’re going through the motions in a simulation of a contest.

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