Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to win a majority of Black voters, and has brought many back to her party since taking over for President Biden. Still, a significant gap in support persists.
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Presidential support among Black voters
| Dem. | Rep. | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2016 Estimates |
92% | 7% | Dem. +85 |
|
2020 Estimates |
90% | 9% | Dem. +81 |
|
2024 Times/Siena Oct. poll |
78% | 15% | Dem. +63 |
Vote shares and victory margins for 2016 and 2020 are averages of the following: estimates from studies of validated voters by the Pew Research Center, post-election assessments by Catalist and exit polls by the National Election Pool.
By June Kim
By Maya KingJonathan Weisman and Ruth Igielnik
Oct. 12, 2024Updated 6:42 a.m. ET
Vice President Kamala Harris has improved her party’s standing among Black voters since President Biden left the presidential race, but she still significantly trails Mr. Biden’s 2020 share of that vital Democratic constituency, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of Black likely voters.
Nearly eight out of 10 Black voters nationwide said they would vote for Ms. Harris, the poll found, a marked increase from the 74 percent of Black voters who said they would support Mr. Biden before he dropped out of the race in July. But Mr. Biden won 90 percent of Black voters to capture the White House by narrow margins in 2020, and the drop-off for Ms. Harris, if it holds, is large enough to imperil her chances of winning key battleground states.
Democrats have been banking on a tidal wave of support from Black voters, drawn by the chance to elect the first Black female president and by revulsion toward former President Donald J. Trump, whose questioning of Ms. Harris’s racial identity, comments on “Black jobs” and demonizing of Haitian immigrants pushed his long history of racist attacks to the forefront of the campaign.
Ms. Harris is no doubt on track to win an overwhelming majority of Black voters, but Mr. Trump appears to be chipping away broadly at a longstanding Democratic advantage. His campaign has relied on targeted advertising and sporadic outreach events to court African American voters — especially Black men — and has seen an uptick in support. About 15 percent of Black likely voters said they planned to vote for the former president, according to the new poll, a six-point increase from four years ago.
Much of the erosion in support for Ms. Harris is driven by a growing belief that Democrats, who have long celebrated Black voters as the “backbone” of their party, have failed to deliver on their promises, the poll showed. Forty percent of African American voters under 30 said the Republican Party was more likely to follow through on its campaign commitments than Democrats were.
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Sept. 29 to Oct. 5
Harris
Trump
All Black voters 78% 15% BLACK VOTERS BY Gender Men 70% 20% Women 83% 12% BLACK VOTERS BY Age Under 45 77% 14% 45+ 79% 15% BLACK VOTERS BY Education College 79% 14% No college 78% 15%
The unlabeled segment refers to the share of voters who did not respond or who said they didn’t know.
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 589 Black likely voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 5.
By June Kim
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Sept. 29 to Oct. 5
Percentage of Black voters who think each of the following describes the Democratic Party more or the Republican Party more:
Democratic Party Republican Party
Is the party of the working class
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing people like me
Can fix the problems facing people like me
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 589 Black likely voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 5.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
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Source: nytimes.com
