The president’s popularity has ticked up slightly, though voters still view Donald J. Trump more favorably and have dour views of the economy.
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THE NEW YORK TIMES / SIENA COLLEGE POLL
April 7 to 11
If the 2024 presidential election
were held today, who would you
vote for if the candidates were
Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
46%
Trump
45%
Biden
Don’t know/
declined to say
8%
THE NEW YORK TIMES / SIENA COLLEGE POLL
Apr. 7 to 11
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
46%
Trump
45%
Biden
Don’t know/
declined to say
8%
Note: Figures may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024.
By Molly Cook Escobar
By Shane Goldmacher
April 13, 2024, 5:04 a.m. ET
President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age, according to a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College.
Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are now virtually tied, with Mr. Trump holding a 46 percent to 45 percent edge. That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier 48 percent to 43 percent lead just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee.
Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president — 97 percent to 83 percent — but that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.
The tightening poll results are the latest evidence of a 2024 contest that both campaigns are preparing to be excruciatingly close. The last two presidential elections were decided by tens of thousands of votes in a handful of battleground states, and this one could be just as tight. In a nation so evenly divided, even the tiniest of shifts in support could prove decisive.
Beneath the narrowing contest, many of the fundamentals of the race appear largely unchanged.
The share of voters who view the nation as headed in the wrong direction remains a high 64 percent. Almost 80 percent of voters still rate the nation’s economic conditions as fair or poor, including a majority of Democrats. And both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump remain unpopular, for familiar reasons. Most voters think Mr. Biden is too old. A majority believe Mr. Trump has committed serious federal crimes.
“Just blah,” said Beth Prevost, a 59-year-old hairdresser and independent voter in Windsor Locks, Conn., summing up the feelings of so many about the rematch. She said she was leaning toward Mr. Biden as “the lesser of the two evils.”
Voters have a better opinion of Trump
Respondents who had a very favorable or
somewhat favorable opinion of each candidate
50%
Trump
43%
Biden
41%
40
30
20
10
July
2022
Sept.
July
2023
Dec.
Feb.
2024
April
Voters have a better opinion of Trump
Respondents who had a very favorable or somewhat favorable opinion of each candidate
50%
Trump
43%
40
Biden
41%
30
20
10
July
2022
Sept.
July
2023
Dec.
Feb.
2024
April
Note: Figures may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters conducted April 7 to 11, 2024.
By Molly Cook Escobar
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Source: nytimes.com
