The polls, taken before the assassination attempt on Donald J. Trump, found President Biden trailing Mr. Trump in Pennsylvania, a swing state critical to his re-election hopes, and slightly ahead in Virginia, a state he won by 10 points in 2020.
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THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
July 9 to 12
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were
Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
Among
likely voters
Biden
Trump
45%
48%
Pennsylvania
45
48
Virginia
Shaded areas represent margins of error.
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
July 9 to 12
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
Among likely voters
Biden
Trump
45%
48%
Pennsylvania
45
48
Virginia
Shaded areas represent margins of error.
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
July 9 to 12
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were
Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
Among
likely voters
Biden
Trump
45%
48%
Pennsylvania
45
48
Virginia
Shaded areas represent margins of error.
The margin of sampling error for the Pennsylvania poll is plus or minus 3.8 points. For Virginia it is plus or minus 4.4 points.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 872 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from July 9 to 11, 2024, and 661 voters in Virginia conducted from July 9 to 12, 2024.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
By Adam Nagourney and Ruth Igielnik
July 15, 2024, 11:01 a.m. ET
President Biden is locked in a tight race with former President Donald J. Trump in Pennsylvania, a state that Mr. Biden barely won in 2020 and that is critical to his re-election hopes, and in Virginia, a state where Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump by 10 percentage points in 2020, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls.
The polls, which were completed before the assassination attempt on Mr. Trump while he was campaigning in Pennsylvania on Saturday, found that Mr. Trump was leading the president by 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Pennsylvania. The results are almost unchanged from a New York Times/Siena College poll taken in May and within the margin of error.
By almost any Electoral College map calculation, it would be nearly impossible for Mr. Biden to win re-election without Pennsylvania.
Of potential greater concern for Mr. Biden and Democrats in the polls, which were conducted from July 9 through July 12, is the prospect that Virginia, a state that few strategists from either party thought would be in contention this year, appears to have turned competitive in a Trump-Biden rematch. In that state, Mr. Biden has a lead of 3 percentage points over Mr. Trump among likely voters, which is within the margin of error.
The last time a Republican won Virginia in a presidential race was 2004, when President George W. Bush beat his Democratic challenger, John F. Kerry, on his way to winning a second term in the White House.
“Joe Biden doesn’t really stand for traditional American values,” said Kendall Wood, 31, a truck driver who is an independent voter from Richmond, Va. He voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 and said he would support Mr. Trump — if he voted at all — this year. “Trump is more appealing to me simply because, again, I feel like his policies would empower me as opposed to hinder me,” he said.
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
July 9 to 12
How Biden and Harris
Fare Against Trump
Pennsylvania
Biden
Trump
45%
48%
Harris
Trump
47
48
Virginia
Trump
Biden
45%
48%
Trump
Harris
44
49
Shaded areas represent margins of error.
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
July 9 to 12
How Biden and Harris Fare Against Trump
Pennsylvania
Biden
Trump
45%
48%
Harris
Trump
47
48
Virginia
Trump
Biden
45%
48%
Trump
Harris
44
49
Shaded areas represent margins of error.
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
July 9 to 12
How Biden and Harris Fare Against Trump
Pennsylvania
Biden
Trump
45%
48%
Harris
Trump
47
48
Virginia
Trump
Biden
45%
48%
Trump
Harris
44
49
Shaded areas represent margins of error.
Results are among likely voters. The margin of sampling error for the Pennsylvania poll is plus or minus 3.8 points. For Virginia it is plus or minus 4.4 points.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 872 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from July 9 to 11, 2024, and 661 voters in Virginia conducted from July 9 to 12, 2024.
By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
July 9 to 12
Do you think Joe Biden should remain the Democratic Party’s nominee for president?
Pennsylvania voters Should remain Should drop out democrats 48% 46 Should remain Should drop out independents 27% 68 Virginia voters Should remain Should drop out democrats 39% 58 Should remain Should drop out independents 32% 60
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
July 9 to 12
Do you think Donald Trump should remain the Republican Party’s nominee for president?
Pennsylvania voters Should remain Should drop out republicans 81% 15 Should remain Should drop out independents 45% 49 Virginia voters Should remain Should drop out republicans 80% 18 Should remain Should drop out independents 38% 59
Results are among registered voters. The unlabeled segment refers to the share of voters who did not respond or who said they didn’t know.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 872 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from July 9 to 11, 2024, and 661 voters in Virginia conducted from July 9 to 12, 2024. Question wording has been condensed.
By Lily Boyce and Keith Collins
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Source: nytimes.com
