Members of both parties were poring over the ongoing counts in search of clues to the final outcome.
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Tourists outside the Capitol on Thursday as members of Congress waited results of vote counts in several races.
WASHINGTON — An air of suspense hung over the Capitol on Thursday. It was combined with an air of uncertainty. Also, an air of “What the heck is going on?”
Two days after the polls closed in a consequential and highly anticipated midterm election, Congress was in a state of suspended animation, with nobody sure which party would be in charge of the House and Senate come January as ballots across the country continued to be tallied.
Top lawmakers who are rarely at a loss for something to say or a plan to execute instead waited anxiously for results from key states in the West. And waited. And waited some more.
Even Senator Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Republican who raised and strategically invested more than $300 million over the past few months in a bid to secure enough Republican seats to make him majority leader next year, was in the dark about the fate of his effort.
“Like all of you, I’m just watching and waiting for them to finish counting votes,” said Mr. McConnell, never one to give much away, as he was surrounded by reporters upon arrival at his Capitol office. But with the outcome in doubt, there was little for him to do there but binge watch cable news and badger his political experts for hard information.
The marble hallways were mostly quiet, free of the post-election jockeying for cameras and celebratory news conferences by the victors that usually follow fast on the heels of Election Day. There was nothing much definitive to say yet, with control of the Senate still very much up for grabs and dozens of House races that could shift the balance of power still uncalled.
It was somewhat reminiscent of the days immediately after the 2000 presidential election, when all eyes were on Florida and Americans waited not so patiently for the answer to the simple question of who would be the next president — though this time without the hanging chads, the Brooks Brothers riot or the Supreme Court intervention.
At least not yet.
In this case, voters just wanted to hear whether Democrats or Republicans would be in control of the House and Senate — if control is even a word that can be applied given what are certain to be razor-thin congressional majorities in any eventuality. It is traditionally pretty clear the morning after the voting ends, and the winners rush to the Capitol to crow publicly about their victories and their plans for the future.
ImageSenate staff members in the Hart Senate Office Building, where questions loomed over control of the chamber, on Thursday.Credit…Anna Rose Layden for The New York TimesImageA Senate staff member watched election coverage in the coffee shop beneath the Russell Senate Office Building.Credit…Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times
This year, the outcome remained unclear, without the final results from Colorado, California, Arizona and Nevada among other places. Congressional leaders have maintained low profiles until they can be sure of the outcome. Victory laps have not been taken.
Who Will Control Congress? Here’s When We’ll Know.
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Much remains uncertain. For the second Election Day in a row, election night ended without a clear winner. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, takes a look at the state of the races for the House and Senate, and when we might know the outcome:
The House. Republicans are likelier than not to win the House, but it is no certainty. There are still several key races that remain uncalled, and in many of these contests, late mail ballots have the potential to help Democrats. It will take days to count them.
The Senate. The fight for the Senate will come down to three states: Nevada, Georgia and Arizona. Outstanding ballots in Nevada and Arizona could take days to count, but control of the chamber may ultimately hinge on Georgia, which is headed for a Dec. 6 runoff.
How we got here. The political conditions seemed ripe for Republicans to make big midterm pickups, but voters had other ideas. Read our five takeaways and analysis of why the “red wave” didn’t materialize for the G.O.P.
One thing that was knowable, however, was that Republicans and analysts had underestimated Democratic strength going into Tuesday. Republicans believed that with gas prices so high, Democrats would have nothing left in the tank, predicting their side would run up the score in both chambers of Congress.
But with about three dozen House races still undecided, the Nancy Pelosi-led House Democrats still had a mathematical — if implausible — path to holding the majority, an outcome that would defy all laws of political gravity.
Falling short of that, Democrats seemed on track to retain over 200 House seats — a symbolic threshold — and leave Republicans with a slight and probably unmanageable majority that could drive its leaders mad. The House races still in play were sufficient to swing the majority either way, though Republicans had a clear advantage.
In the Senate, Democrats had a chance to gain a seat if the results in Arizona, Nevada and a Georgia runoff go their way. The mere suggestion of Democrats adding to their bare majority had drawn eye rolls when Senator Chuck Schumer, the New York Democrat and for now the majority leader, dared mention it before the election.
Republicans could still secure both majorities, but on Thursday in Washington, it somehow felt as though they had lost, given the sky-high expectations they had set.
Members of his party, said Representative Fred Upton, a retiring Republican from Michigan, “had their fingers crossed, but they were broken instead.”
The uncertainty did not stop the political maneuvering.
Representative Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican who aspires to be speaker, was trying to nail down the votes for the job, even without a guarantee that the position would become vacant. He announced the formation of transition teams “to ensure that a Republican majority is ready to get to work for the American people on Day 1,” according to a news release.
He was not the only person trying to get a jump on things. Though she was trailing in her House race back in Alaska, Sarah Palin, the former governor and vice-presidential candidate, announced she was traveling to Washington to meet with potential conservative colleagues and had named an acting chief of staff for an office she might never have.
With Senator Mark Kelly holding a substantial lead over his Republican opponent, Blake Masters, in the ongoing Arizona count, both parties were focused on the tally in Nevada in the race between Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, the incumbent Democrat, and her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt. Hundreds of thousands of ballots were still to be counted in those two states.
If both Mr. Kelly and Ms. Cortez Masto triumphed, Democrats would be assured of maintaining the 50-50 majority they hold now by virtue of the tiebreaking power of Vice President Kamala Harris. That would make the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff between Senator Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker a battle over a potential 51st Democratic seat. If Republicans could win Nevada and Arizona, they would take the majority regardless of the outcome in Georgia, and could end up with a 52 to 48 majority if they swept all three.
But if Republicans and Democrats split Nevada and Arizona, the Georgia race would once again become a cage match for the Senate majority.
On a private Thursday conference call with Republican senators and donors, Senator Rick Scott, the Florida Republican and chairman of the party’s campaign arm, assured those listening that Mr. Laxalt would triumph in Nevada, leaving Georgia the remaining battleground for Senate control. He and Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and a top campaigner for Mr. Walker, urged donors and senators to open their wallets and tap their campaign accounts for the Georgia race.
Democrats, naturally, took a different view. They believed the odds were good they could win both Arizona, where they lead, and Nevada, where the outstanding vote would seem to favor Ms. Cortez Masto, and then focus on Georgia to expand their majority.
Allies of Mr. Schumer, who is usually on his cellphone regardless, say that he has been religiously monitoring developments from his offices in both Washington and New York after his own re-election Tuesday night. He has been dialing up operatives on the ground in Nevada and Arizona every few hours and has been, one person in contact with him said, growing increasingly optimistic with each call. He has also been trying to generate money for the Georgia runoff.
ImageStaff members working inside the Hart Senate Office Building on Thursday, with results in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona still uncertain.Credit…Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times
Even if they have already nailed down the majority, Democrats would dearly love to win Georgia, not only because Mr. Warnock is a popular colleague, but also because there is a big difference in the Senate between a 50-50 divide and a 51-to-49 split.
If they could reach 51, Democrats could expand their membership on committees, spare the vice president regular tiebreaking votes and reduce the leverage of perennial defectors, Senator Joe Manchin III chief among them, who have been occasional obstacles to their agenda.
Knowing the political lay of the land could help both parties strategize for the upcoming lame duck session, though Mr. McConnell noted that whatever happens, the post-election agenda would remain the purview of the current Democratic majority.
“Schumer will still be majority leader,” Mr. McConnell said, “until the end of the year, for sure.”
Source: nytimes.com
