Turnout is high in most states, and experts see broad Republican energy as well as Democratic enthusiasm in major battlegrounds. But changes in how people vote have added new uncertainty.
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Voters left after casting early ballots on Wednesday in Kenosha, Wis. Since the beginning of the pandemic, far more Americans now cast their ballots early or by mail.
Anxious and polarized Americans have swarmed early voting locations and returned mail ballots in droves, casting more than 32 million votes as of Thursday as turnout in most states keeps pace with the record levels of the 2018 midterm elections and voters navigate heightened tensions over the democratic process.
The high energy before Election Day, while offering hints of hope for both parties as they look to glean any signs of strength or weakness, reflects how the nation’s voting behaviors have entered uncharted terrain since the pandemic and the Trump-fueled chaos of the 2020 election.
Far more Americans now vote early or by mail, and far more Republicans now avoid mail ballots and vote in person — trends that have upended traditional voting models and prompted election experts and political operatives to caution against reading too much into this year’s early vote totals.
Still, everyone is eagerly digging into the numbers.
Republicans are largely faring better across the country, with early vote totals running ahead of their 2020 levels in battleground states like Nevada and Florida as well as in deep-blue states like California. But in states with major races for Senate and governor, like Pennsylvania and Arizona, Democrats’ early vote count is also around the same level or higher than it was two years ago.
The emerging picture — which is incomplete, because fewer than half of all states report vote totals by party registration — is of a midterm election with high overall interest, broad Republican enthusiasm and somewhat narrower Democratic intensity so far. The signs of a Republican advantage line up with polls showing the party on stronger footing in the campaign’s final days, riding a historically typical backlash to an unpopular first-term president and widespread voter unease about economic issues.
ImageSupporters signed the campaign bus of Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, in Duncansville on Wednesday. In states like Pennsylvania that have major races, Democratic energy appears high.Credit…Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesImageVoters waited on Wednesday to cast early ballots in Atlanta. A partisan split has emerged in how Americans vote, with Republicans tending to avoid mail voting and Democrats embracing the practice.Credit…Nicole Craine for The New York Times
“If you look at these hot-race states, you see the Democrats are on par, or better than the Republicans in the rate in which they’re returning their mail ballots,” said Michael McDonald, a voter turnout expert at the University of Florida. “But in states that are not on that same sort of midterm battleground map, you don’t see the Democrats performing there.”
The parties have taken markedly different approaches to how they encourage their voters to cast ballots. Democrats urge their rank-and-file to vote early, either in person or by mail, as much as possible so the party can bank votes. But many leading Republicans, echoing former President Donald J. Trump’s complaints about mail voting in the 2020 election, have denounced the practice and urged their voters to cast ballots in person, either early or on Election Day.
This phenomenon means that Democrats might seem to hold an advantage in a state where large numbers of their voters are casting early ballots — but in fact many Republicans are either holding on to their early ballots to return in person on Election Day, or will go to the polls that day to vote.
The State of the 2022 Midterm Elections
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.
- Biden’s Speech: In a prime-time address, President Biden denounced Republicans who deny the legitimacy of elections, warning that the country’s democratic traditions are on the line.
- State Supreme Court Races: The traditionally overlooked contests have emerged this year as crucial battlefields in the struggle over the course of American democracy.
- Democrats’ Mounting Anxiety: Top Democratic officials are openly second-guessing their party’s pitch and tactics, saying Democrats have failed to unite around one central message.
- Social Security and Medicare: Republicans, eyeing a midterms victory, are floating changes to the safety net programs. Democrats have seized on the proposals to galvanize voters.
No state is a better example of this than Arizona.
At the same point in 2018, when Democrats rode a blue wave to take back the House, 39 percent of the party’s registered voters in Arizona had cast ballots. As of Tuesday, they were at the same level, according to Sam Almy, an election analyst in Arizona who works with Democrats. On the other hand, 45 percent of registered Republicans had voted at the same point in 2018, and as of Tuesday, only 33 percent had done so this year.
“But it’s not as if these voters aren’t going to show up,” Mr. Almy said of Republicans. “They’re just going to show up at a different time in the election.” He added, “They’re taking this huge gamble on Election Day that they’re all going to show up at the polls to drop off early ballots or vote in person.”
Some Republican candidates recognize that risk.
ImageElection workers on Wednesday in Phoenix. In Arizona, many Republicans appear to be waiting until Election Day to cast their votes.Credit…Rebecca Noble for The New York TimesImageBallots were scanned and sorted in Doylestown, Pa.Credit…Ruth Fremson/The New York Times
“I recommend that you go vote early — early in-person is just as secure as voting in-person on Election Day,” Blake Masters, the Republican nominee for Senate in Arizona, said Wednesday night during an event with Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor, and Mr. Trump, who appeared by phone. Mr. Trump and Ms. Lake have raised baseless doubts about the security of the nation’s voting systems.
“But hey, if you want to vote on Election Day or you want to vote early, it’s all good,” Mr. Masters said. “We just need you to go out and vote.”
Early vote totals for Republicans are also low in Nevada, but Democrats see bigger warning signs in the state.
Vote totals from rural, redder counties show higher early turnout, while numbers in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and the heartbeat of Democratic strength in the state, are below normal, according to data from The Nevada Independent. (The state has a decentralized system, and only a few counties, including Clark and Washoe, which includes Reno, report their vote totals daily. Many counties release weekly numbers.)
Overall, Democrats in Nevada have a slim 3-percent lead in early vote returns, according to data from John Couvillon, a pollster who has worked with Republican candidates, which would put the party well behind its leads before Election Day in previous years.
“In 2020, the Democrats had a much more robust lead in the early vote — double digits — and even with all that, they still carried the state by just two points,” Mr. Couvillon said.
The Democratic enthusiasm gap in many states around the country is acutely evident in Florida, where the races for Senate and governor have not attracted much national attention and polls show the Republican incumbents — Senator Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis — with healthy leads.
Roughly 23 percent of Republicans have voted early in Florida, compared with about 21 percent of Democrats, according to data from Dr. McDonald’s United States Election Project. In many years, Democrats in the state enter Election Day with a significant lead.
ImageEarly voting last week in Queens. Republican energy appears high in deep-blue states. Credit…Janice Chung for The New York TimesImageElection workers moved voting machines onto trucks on Wednesday in Warrington, Pa., before their delivery to polling sites. Credit…Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times
A lagging youth vote is another worry for Democrats in Florida, as well as nationally. In Florida, Dr. McDonald said, less than 5 percent of voters from ages 18 to 29 have cast ballots.
In the six other states that include age ranges in their voting data, voters aged 18 to 25 make up just 4.3 percent of the overall early ballot totals. By comparison, voters over 40 make up more than 86 percent of the total early vote in those states. That trend would seem to favor Republicans.
But Dr. McDonald noted that young people tended to vote later in election cycles, a pattern that played out in this year’s primaries.
“I don’t want to write the obituary on the youth vote yet,” Dr. McDonald said. “But right now, as we make that same-day comparison, in states where we can actually make it, it doesn’t look nearly as robust as it did in 2018.”
Republicans are hoping that their focus on issues like inflation will drive their voters to the polls.
“It hurts lower-wage and hourly-wage incomes, people don’t have the means, and I’m afraid things will keep going downhill” if Democrats win, Christy Kinstley, 55, of Corpus Christi, Texas, said as she waited for the gates to open at a Trump rally late last month.
Many Democratic voters, for their part, are cognizant that midterm dynamics usually favor the party out of power in the White House, but they worry about what they see as this year’s existential stakes.
“I tell my students, it flips every two years,” said Angelo Florestano, 63, a high school social studies teacher from Superior, Wis., wearing an “America needs public schools” T-shirt. “Unfortunately, it goes back and forth, which in a way is, I think, good for our political system.”
Holding up an “I voted” sticker, he added: “But hopefully, hopefully, I can use this sticker again. That is a worry for me, personally.”
Michael C. Bender and Reid J. Epstein contributed reporting.
Source: nytimes.com
