The Trump administration is seeking to reset relations with Russia as part of a broader shift in U.S. foreign policy. While proponents say it reflects changing geopolitical realities, past experience suggests that a successful reset may be easier said than done.
Since the end of the Cold War, successive U.S. governments have sought to reset relations with Russia. Perhaps the most famous example came in 2009, when U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton launched a highly publicized effort to develop a new strategy toward Russia. Their administration envisioned renewed cooperation with Russia on a range of issues, including counterterrorism, nonproliferation, and illicit trafficking in goods and people.
The problems of communicating with the Kremlin were obvious from the start. In a moment of poetic irony, Secretary of State Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov staged a photo op, pressing a large red button that was supposed to mean “reset” in Russian. But the inscription was mistranslated and actually read “overload.” It proved prophetic, and the bilateral relationship soon began to veer toward confrontation rather than cooperation.
In addition to their often conflicting foreign policy agendas, U.S. and Russian leaders also operate in very different political realities. When U.S. presidents are elected to office and their party controls Congress, they have only two guaranteed years to shape new policies, positively impact the lives of Americans, and set the course for their reelection. During this short period of time, American policymakers often face difficult decisions under intense pressure from their constituents. Unfortunately, success through innovation requires a willingness to fail.
By comparison, Russian politicians do not race against time in the same way. They rarely face tight deadlines or constraints from public opinion in implementing their policies. Just as most Soviet leaders ruled until their deaths, today’s Russian leaders, such as Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov, remain in their roles for decades. Russia’s security apparatus, the true source of political power in the country, has been loyal to Putin from the very beginning of his rule.
Developing a coherent strategy for Putin’s Russia has proven more difficult than for other regions because traditional playbooks do not apply. The United States has been unwilling to pursue a Cold War-style containment policy because Russia is now a global power with an internationally integrated economy. Washington has also been unwilling to continue the strategic security cooperation it had enjoyed in the 1990s because Russia has proven an unreliable partner, violated the rules-based international order, and puts American lives at direct risk.
Despite the need to address the security challenges posed by Russia, a coordinated U.S. strategy to counter the Kremlin remains elusive. Successive attempts to reset the relationship have failed, and bilateral ties have deteriorated. It is true that the U.S. has had a Ukraine policy and a Russia-Ukraine policy. But the strategic plan to counter Russia’s actions globally with traditional soft and hard power has become politically toxic for successive U.S. administrations.
This is true of all U.S. policy. While Congress supports country-specific factions, such as the Ukraine Caucus or the Friends of a Democratic Belarus Caucus, it has long been considered politically impossible to create a Friends of a Democratic Russia Caucus. Until recently, no member of Congress wanted to appear to be extending even a metaphorical hand to Russia. But that may now change.
Why is there such an obvious sense of urgency? Like U.S. presidents before him, Trump is running against the clock. He ran for president on a campaign to end foreign wars. He also has an ambitious domestic agenda to shrink the federal workforce and dramatically increase its productivity. Most important, Congress must pass a budget by March 14 or the federal government will shut down, putting explosive pressure on the Trump administration.
Trump needs a deal with Russia more than he fears the political fallout that resetting Russia could bring to his presidency. In an era when Russia policy has long been politically elusive, now may be the time for a sea change in U.S.-Russia relations. As the Trump administration rethinks the U.S. approach to international aid and diplomacy, all eyes will be on how it handles relations with America’s longtime geopolitical rival and the potential implications for Ukraine’s future.
Leah Nodwin is a national security specialist with extensive experience in international affairs, defense, trade, and geopolitical risk.
Source: euractiv.com
