The release of prominent Belarusian political prisoner Sergei Tikhanovsky last weekend caught everyone by surprise. It was a rare moment of optimism that offered hope for the future while also highlighting the plight of more than 1,000 Belarusians still imprisoned in the country on politically motivated charges.
Tikhanovsky was one of the most high-profile figures jailed in the summer of 2020 ahead of Belarus’s presidential election. Following his imprisonment, Tikhanovsky’s wife, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, ran in his place and emerged as a major threat to the rule of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Forced into exile in the days following the fraud-marred vote, she has spent the past five years leading the Belarusian opposition movement while raising international awareness of the fight for a democratic Belarus. The sight of an exhausted but free Tikhanovsky finally embracing his wife was a powerful image.
The couple's reunion in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on Saturday was facilitated by U.S. diplomatic efforts. Tikhanovsky was one of 14 Belarusian political prisoners freed following U.S. Special Representative Keith Kellogg's visit to Minsk and meeting with Lukashenko. Among those released were RFE/RL journalist Igor Kornei and university professor Natalia Dulina.
Tikhanovskaya thanked US President Donald Trump, Kellogg and other US officials for their role in securing freedom for some of Belarus’s most prominent political prisoners. But she also stressed that many other Belarusians remain in jail on politically motivated charges. “We are not finished. There are 1,150 political prisoners behind bars. They should all be released,” she said.
The decision to release some of Belarus’s most prominent political prisoners last week was not an act of mercy. It was a calculated move by Lukashenko in pursuit of international legitimacy. The Belarusian ruler has found himself diplomatically isolated since launching a brutal crackdown on protests over his country’s disputed 2020 presidential election and has become heavily dependent on the Kremlin for his political survival.
He now appears to want the US to soften its stance and recognise him as a potentially useful partner in a difficult region. The goal is normalisation on Lukashenko’s terms, with less international pressure on the regime without any fundamental changes to its repressive system.
Officials in Minsk have made no secret of their desire to discuss sanctions relief and greater engagement with the United States. Lukashenko has also expressed interest in joining U.S.-led peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, a clear signal that he is seeking to position himself not as a Kremlin satellite but as a legitimate regional player worthy of diplomatic recognition.
There is no real evidence that Lukashenko is truly distancing himself from Moscow. Since 2020, he has allowed Russia to dramatically expand its influence across Belarus in a process some have likened to a creeping annexation. In 2022, Lukashenko allowed Russia to use the country as a gateway to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He remains one of the few international leaders who meets regularly with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly before Kellogg’s visit, Lukashenko met with Alexander Bastrykin, head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, and promised that “Belarus is, has always been, and will be with Russia.” Joint military exercises with the Russian army are planned for September in Belarus, and recent satellite images indicate that Russia is upgrading its nuclear infrastructure at a facility in Belarus.
While Lukashenko’s attempts to portray himself as an independent geopolitical player remain deeply unconvincing, diplomatic efforts by the United States and other democratic allies are yielding results. The 14 people released on Saturday were the last of more than 300 political prisoners released by the Belarusian government since the summer of 2024. These political prisoners have been used by the Lukashenko regime as bargaining chips to gain favor in negotiations with the international community.
Many of those previously released were already nearing the end of their sentences. Those who remain in Belarus after their release reportedly face constant surveillance, pressure to cooperate with the security services, and the threat of rearrest for any public dissent. Others, like those released last weekend, have effectively been forced into exile and stripped of their citizenship in practice, if not yet officially.
Meanwhile, the situation for those still behind bars is more critical than ever. Since 2020, eight Belarusian political prisoners have died in custody. Others have died shortly after their release, often as a result of untreated illnesses or human rights abuses they suffered while incarcerated. At least 206 of those currently incarcerated are known to have serious health conditions. For others, there is no end in sight. Prisoners like Viktoria Kulsha, a 43-year-old mother convicted in 2021 of moderating a Telegram chat in support of anti-regime protests, continue to face new charges despite being due for release.
The release of fourteen Belarusian political prisoners is welcome news. But the 1,172 people who remain behind bars deserve more than symbolic gestures. They need a strategy that targets the system responsible for their imprisonment. Without this added pressure, every carefully orchestrated prisoner release risks strengthening Lukashenko’s grip on power and allowing him to manipulate the West while maintaining his authoritarian rule. The United States clearly has significant leverage over Lukashenko and should not be afraid to use it.
Anna Lubakova is a journalist from Belarus and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council.
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