No one wants peace in Ukraine more than Ukrainians themselves. But having experienced the horrors of modern war, Ukrainians are also desperate for reassurance that the current nightmare will never be repeated. That is why Ukrainian officials continue to insist that any peace deal must include credible security guarantees for their country. These guarantees must be multifaceted, covering a range of components to be effective.
Currently, the international discussion of security guarantees for Ukraine is focused primarily on potential military alliances, peacekeeping missions, and strengthening the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is understandable, as Western leaders seek to counter the largest invasion of Europe since World War II. But the role of sanctions in maintaining peace in the coming years should also be examined in more detail.
Sanctions have long been seen as a tool to pressure Russia and force Putin to reconsider his invasion of Ukraine. They may also play a role in a longer-term effort to limit the possibility of further Russian aggression. Sanctions can be used in a practical sense to limit Moscow’s ability to wage war, but they can also be part of a broader policy designed to contain the Kremlin and provide Europe as a whole with a greater sense of security.
The question of lifting existing sanctions in exchange for Russia taking steps to build peace is already under discussion. Even at this early stage of the US-led peace process, there are signs of divergence on both sides of the Atlantic over the use of sanctions as a tool to bring Russia to the negotiating table. Going forward, unity on sanctions policy will be crucial.
Many, if not most, of the current sanctions measures imposed on Russia since 2022 in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine are likely to remain in place until a peace agreement is implemented. In the post-war period, it will be important to maintain or introduce targeted sanctions that can limit the Kremlin’s access to advanced military technology. This will help limit Russia’s ability to rearm.
Countries across Europe are already discussing significant increases in defense spending, with many governments planning to invest in expensive air defense systems to defend against the kind of Russian bombing they have seen in Ukraine. While these air defense upgrades are clearly necessary, it would also make sense to take steps that could potentially prevent Russia from replenishing its arsenal of missiles and drones by denying Moscow the ability to purchase key components in large quantities.
In addition to basic sanctions on military technology, Western leaders should also explore the possibility of agreeing on comprehensive sanctions packages that would be activated in the event of renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine or elsewhere. A robust rapid-response mechanism would send an unambiguous signal to Moscow that further incursions would inevitably and severely impact the economy.
This approach could build on the experience of sanctions over the past three years. Western policymakers could step up cooperation to better identify Russia’s vulnerabilities and close potential loopholes, such as the role of third-party proxies in circumventing sanctions measures. Much will depend on the willingness of participating countries to work together to present a united front to the Kremlin.
No sanctions measures, whether imposed or implied, can hope to fully replace the hard power of military deterrence. Russian expansionism and the isolationism of the current US administration mean that a high degree of rearmament in Europe is already inevitable. It also means that the Ukrainian military will likely remain at the centre of Europe’s new security architecture for many years to come, and will become the main focus of investment in the defence sector. At the same time, tools such as sanctions can help to further deter the Kremlin.
There is currently no consensus on the impact of sanctions on efforts to stop Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, given sufficient political will and Western unity, sanctions could be an important component of post-war efforts to secure Ukraine and provide Europe with some degree of stability. This approach is economically attractive. Although expanding defense budgets will significantly increase the burden on European taxpayers, sanctions are the single most cost-effective way to contain Russia and enhance international security. They should therefore be used to the fullest extent possible.
Dr. Ilona Khmeleva is the Secretary General of the Economic Security Council of Ukraine (ESCU).
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