The election of Donald Trump has set the stage for what many expect to be a push toward some kind of peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in the coming months. The outcome of these efforts is likely to redefine the entire global security architecture and determine whether the rules-based order established after World War II is replaced by a new era of international instability.
In the eighty years since the defeat of Nazi Germany, the United States has emerged as a key architect of global stability. Decades of unprecedented economic growth and relative peace that followed the Cold War allowed countries to enjoy a period of relative security and prosperity under the umbrella of international law. But it is now clear that this calm lulled some democracies into neglecting their defense obligations, helping to convince autocracies like Putin’s Russia that the time had come to challenge the existing order.
Ukraine now finds itself on the front lines of a clash between the democratic and authoritarian worlds. After the collapse of the USSR, the former captive countries of the Soviet Union struggled to emerge from centuries of Russian imperial rule. Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia succeeded in integrating into Western economic and security alliances. Others, like Belarus, returned to the Kremlin’s orbit. Ukraine’s path has been the most difficult of all.
Since 1991, Ukraine has been slowly but surely moving away from its totalitarian past and toward a democratic European future. However, these efforts have been hampered by Russia’s determination to reassert its control over the country. From the early years of the post-Soviet era, it has been clear that Moscow views the emergence of a truly independent and democratic Ukraine as an existential threat to its own authoritarian model and a potential catalyst for the next chapter of Russia’s retreat from empire.
Ukraine’s resilience in the face of Russia’s initial invasion in 2014 and its full-scale assault in 2022 demonstrates the success of the country’s nation-building efforts and the strength of Ukrainian civil society. Despite the enormous pressures of war, today’s Ukraine remains committed to democratic values and Euro-Atlantic integration. This helps explain why Putin sees continued Ukrainian independence as so dangerous.
Moscow’s ambitions are no secret. The Kremlin sees its war against Ukraine as a major step toward restoring the Russian empire and as a tool in a broader struggle to transform the geopolitical landscape. Putin is determined to erase Ukrainian statehood while simultaneously undermining the very foundations of international law and global security.
In Putin’s worldview, today’s rules-based order is a mere construct that serves U.S. interests, not a basis for mutually beneficial global cooperation. He is now building a coalition of like-minded autocrats who share his ambition to establish a new world order defined by spheres of interest and the projection of power, in which the world’s largest countries are free to dominate their smaller neighbors.
The first cracks in the current rules-based order began to appear in 2014 with Russia’s invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. This prompted a disappointing international response, which was interpreted by Moscow as an invitation to go further. More recently, the chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2021 was seen as further evidence that the United States was a declining power. This helped convince Putin to proceed with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The West’s continued weakness since Russia’s 2022 invasion has made Putin even more ambitious and emboldened his authoritarian allies. Moscow has expanded its presence in Africa and the Middle East, while strengthening cooperation with countries like China, Iran, and North Korea. This axis of autocrats is playing an increasingly important role in Russia’s war effort. In recent weeks, the first contingent of some 10,000 North Korean troops has joined Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is unlikely that they will be the last.
It should be abundantly clear by now that a Russian victory in Ukraine, however limited, would embolden autocracies around the world. It would trigger a chain reaction and accelerate the breakdown of global security. Moreover, abandoning Ukraine would send a chilling message to all US allies. It would pave the way for a far more dangerous world, where aggression is met with silence and order gives way to chaos.
It is not too late to prevent this slide into geopolitical lawlessness. A decisive Western stand to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can still ensure “peace through force” and send a powerful signal that international aggression will not be tolerated. Failure to do so, however, will undermine global security and prosperity for years to come.
Viktor Lyakh is the CEO of the Eastern Europe Foundation . From 2005 to 2008, he was the executive director of the Children's Welfare Foundation in Ukraine. Previously, he worked at the Ukrainian State Center for Social Services for Youth (1996–2001) and UNICEF (2000–2001).
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