A number of Western officials and security services have recently warned of the growing challenges posed by Russian hybrid warfare. The threat is not new, of course. The Kremlin has a long history of engaging in hybrid aggression against the West, and information warfare has played a central role in Moscow’s efforts to destabilize its democratic adversaries. As geopolitical tensions rise amid a jockeying for position ahead of expected Ukraine peace talks in early 2025, Russian information attacks are likely to intensify.
It is important to recognize that Russia’s information warfare is highly innovative and continues to evolve apace. Russia’s information offensives initially focused on the Kremlin’s own media platforms, such as RT and Sputnik, but these outlets have proven relatively easy to identify, discredit, and restrict. In recent years, Russia has increasingly sought to advance its narratives through partners and proxies, as demonstrated by the recent scandal involving prominent American podcasters.
The innovative use of social media troll farms to sow discord and distort public opinion remains an important component of Russia’s information war. The Kremlin has also engaged in the large-scale creation of fake websites that mimic well-known news outlets, adding a veneer of credibility to Russian disinformation.
Russian narratives are also evolving. In 2022, the Kremlin’s attempts to portray Ukraine as a Nazi state largely fell on deaf ears with an international audience that struggled to understand how a country with a popularly elected Jewish president and no far-right presence in government could need to be “denazified.” Instead, Moscow focused on promoting Western decline and the need for a new multipolar world order.
Through a wide range of traditional and digital media initiatives, the Kremlin has sought to highlight economic problems in Europe and North America, while promoting the idea of growing public discontent in the West over issues such as identity politics and minority rights. Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a bastion of traditional family values, social stability, and conservatism. This has resonated with alienated sections of society across the West.
The Global South is now a priority front in Russia’s information war. After invading Ukraine, which left Russia isolated from the West, the Kremlin has reoriented its foreign policy toward the non-Western world. In its messaging to audiences across the Global South, Russia plays on historical grievances about centuries of Western colonialism and portrays itself as a fellow victim of the West. Despite Russia’s long history of imperial aggression and overt imperialist ambitions in Ukraine, Putin has sought to win audiences in Africa, Asia, and South America by casting himself as a defender against Western imperialism.
It would be foolish to dismiss Russia’s anti-imperial messages as absurd. Older generations in the Global South are often aware of the role the Soviet Union played in the decolonization movement that followed World War II. Others know little about the imperial ambitions that underpinned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and tend to base their opinions of Putin primarily on his opposition to the West. This helps shape geopolitical perspectives across the Global South, and creates a range of foreign policy challenges for the West that go far beyond Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Another key element of the Kremlin’s disinformation campaign is the claim that NATO expansion poses a direct threat to the security of the Russian Federation and is the real cause of the war in Ukraine. This argument resonates strongly with an international audience suspicious of the West’s dominant role in world affairs. While Russia’s other attempts to justify its invasion of Ukraine have failed, its attempts to blame NATO have proven highly effective.
In fact, Putin seems to understand perfectly well that NATO poses no threat to Russia. Tellingly, he raised no serious objections in 2022 when neighboring Finland and Sweden announced their intention to join the alliance, even though it would more than double Russia’s border with NATO and turn the strategically important Baltic Sea into a NATO lake. Indeed, he has since withdrawn most Russian troops from the country’s Finnish border. Clearly, Putin’s expansionist foreign policy reflects his opposition to Ukrainian independence, not any manufactured fears about NATO expansion.
Putin’s NATO narrative may not hold up to scrutiny, but it is likely to play a major role in any upcoming peace talks, as Russia currently insists on ending NATO expansion and firmly committing to Ukraine’s permanent neutrality. This would be potentially disastrous for international security. A neutral Ukraine would be highly vulnerable to further Russian aggression and possible occupation. Meanwhile, growing anti-NATO sentiment in the US and elsewhere risks undermining transatlantic cooperation and fostering isolationism.
The West must carefully monitor trends as it tries to counter Russian disinformation. Crucially, any attempt to moderate content on social media or impose restrictions on even the most overtly propagandistic platforms invites accusations of censorship. Given this, Western governments must walk a fine line in trying to protect themselves from the Kremlin’s information war while also protecting free speech.
Given the transnational nature of today’s information landscape, international cooperation is essential when trying to combat Russian disinformation. Looking ahead, the Western response must include joint task forces, real-time intelligence sharing, and coordinated sanctions efforts against state and private actors. Western policymakers must also match the Kremlin’s versatility and innovation if they are to keep their countries secure in an increasingly complex and interconnected information environment. Putin’s Russia has demonstrated the importance of the information front in modern warfare. It is time for the West to catch up.
Kateryna Odarchenko is a partner at SIC Group Ukraine. Elena Davlikanova is a research fellow at CEPA.
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