Everyone wants to know what Donald Trump has planned for Ukraine. The US president-elect has promised to negotiate a halt to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but has yet to formally outline his terms for a possible deal. At the same time, it is already clear that the new US administration will expect Europe to play a much more prominent role in moving toward sustainable peace. This creates an opportunity for European leaders to seize the initiative.
To secure favorable terms in any future peace process, the West must approach the negotiations from a position of strength. The only way Western leaders can do this is by dramatically expanding military aid to Ukraine and increasing economic pressure on Russia. Europe can show Trump that it is ready to start leading on this issue without delay.
One important step would be to use more than €280 billion of Russian state assets currently frozen in European jurisdictions to support Ukraine economically and militarily, including by funding the production and purchase of American weapons. The case for seizing these assets under international law is strong . Both the US and Canada have already passed legislation to that effect, while the British parliament is moving forward with a report on how to use these assets to fund the military effort in Ukraine.
Using Russian assets to buy American weapons could certainly be attractive to Trump, allowing him to claim a significant win for the U.S. economy. Indeed, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson called the idea “pure poetry.”
The energy sector is another opportunity for Europe to set the agenda in potential peace talks, as well as provide additional incentives for a future US administration. Trump has repeatedly stressed his intention to expand US energy exports. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commented in November that it would make economic and political sense for Europe to import LNG from the US instead of Russia.
Increased US energy exports to the EU, if combined with a lower price cap on Russian oil and further crackdowns on Russia's shadowy oil tanker fleet, could significantly reduce Putin's energy revenues. The Kremlin would face a further loss of global energy market share, while transatlantic economic ties would be strengthened.
With Russia already facing high inflation and an overheating economy , additional energy measures could help force Putin to the negotiating table on terms more favorable to the West. But once talks begin, European governments must be prepared to take serious steps to achieve real peace in their region. Members of Trump’s team, including Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, have proposed that European troops be deployed to Ukraine to help secure a ceasefire. NATO and European leaders met in Brussels last month to discuss the issue. However, there is now considerable resistance in many European capitals to the idea of sending troops to Ukraine.
Whether or not the peace talks produce a roadmap to Ukraine’s future NATO membership, any security guarantees offered to Ukraine will likely require foreign troops to credibly enforce the ceasefire. European leaders should demonstrate their willingness to deploy forces, provided that the United States provides the logistical, military, and political support needed to make such an operation feasible. This would help win over the incoming Trump administration and send a strong signal of transatlantic unity to the Kremlin. Crucially, it would also increase the likelihood that European leaders will be included as full partners in the negotiations.
Unless Ukraine receives credible security guarantees, any ceasefire negotiated in the coming months will almost certainly be broken by Moscow once Russia has had time to rearm. This should be at the forefront of European thinking ahead of possible peace talks.
Even without a resumption of full-scale military action, an insecure post-war Ukraine will be unable to recover economically and will be at risk of another mass exodus as millions try to escape the uncertainty of a country on the brink of foreign conquest and collapse. Europe will face the prospect of a failed state on its doorstep, and Putin will be willing to renew his invasion under far more favorable circumstances.
With a new U.S. policy toward Ukraine yet to take shape, now is the time for European leaders to demonstrate the kind of resolve that has often been lacking since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Over the past three years, the West’s collective response to Russia’s incursion into Ukraine has been consistently delayed, with promised aid often taking months to arrive. This has given Russia time to dig in, and has also convinced Putin that he can ultimately outlast the West in Ukraine.
European leaders now have a historic window of opportunity to shape the future of European security. Over the next few months, Washington will seek to engage Moscow in talks to end the largest invasion of Europe since World War II. European governments cannot afford to remain bystanders while the fate of their continent is being decided. Rather than waiting to see how the new U.S. administration approaches the war, they must work proactively to build leverage by dramatically increasing support for Ukraine, raising the costs of Russian aggression, and taking a greater leadership role.
Doug Klein is a policy analyst at Razom for Ukraine, a U.S.-based humanitarian aid and advocacy nonprofit, and a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.
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