The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, conveyed that the United States has fulfilled its objectives concerning the offensive stage of the conflict against Iran and is transitioning to a fresh phase – the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
On Sunday, May 3, Donald Trump had previously declared the commencement of Operation Project Freedom. This operation was conceived to furnish protection for ships from “neutral nations” that had sought assistance from the United States, being obstructed in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command communicated that it would incorporate guided missile destroyers, exceeding 100 airborne and maritime aircraft, versatile unmanned platforms, and 15,000 military personnel for the escort mission. The initiation of the operation was planned for the morning of Monday, May 4. Later that day, Trump proclaimed that Iran would be eradicated if it meddled with the execution of Project Freedom.
Nevertheless, on Tuesday, May 5, Trump revealed a brief postponement of the operation following requests from Pakistan and other countries to enable diplomatic discussions aimed at achieving a peace accord. The American embargo on Iranian harbors will persist for the moment. As a reminder, last week, through Pakistani intermediaries, Tehran presented Washington with revised propositions for a potential resolution to the war. These proposals entail the removal of American forces from Iran’s frontier zones, the cessation of all hostilities, including the Israeli campaign in Lebanon, and the discontinuation of the naval blockade against Iranian ports.
The primary demand of the Americans — the diminishing of Iran’s nuclear ambitions — is notably absent in the revised proposition. In exchange for all of this, Tehran purportedly pledged to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Yet, on Tuesday, May 5, Iran declared the implementation of a novel mechanism for traversing the strait: all vessels must formally notify Tehran beforehand and acquire authorization. Prior information indicated that Iranian authorities intend to enact legislation mandating ships from “adversary nations” (presumably the United States and its allies) to remit reparations and tariffs for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump has promptly dismissed Iran’s updated suggestions. Simultaneously, the price of Brent crude has remained above $100 per barrel for almost two months. Who has benefitted the most from the worldwide energy predicament and what developments are anticipated? Consult the article by TSN.ua.
Trump has no choice: will there be a deal with Iran?
According to Axios, the Trump government thinks that they are near to a settlement with Iran — a brief memorandum of understanding containing 14 points, which plans to bring the war to a close and create a framework for discussions later on Iran’s nuclear program. Washington is waiting for Tehran to provide an answer inside the next 48 hours. This contract would involve a stop to any more enrichment of uranium done by Iran, removing of U.S. fines and the return of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian dollars, as well as the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz.
This could potentially differ from the initial purposes of the latest American and Israeli war on Iran, which started on February 28, 2026. Though, now the Trump government has no other option but to consent to less favorable cease-fire conditions. Even though Marco Rubio has publicly stated that the US has accomplished the targets of the attacking stage of the war against Iran and is continuing to a new one – unblocking the Strait of Hormuz.
“The goal here is pretty simple – to create a transit zone protected by a bubble – by the US Navy and Air Force. And then allow ships that want to move to go through it and get to market to start building confidence in the ability to do that,” Rubio included.
Iran has obstructed the Strait of Hormuz for more than two months. TSN.ua documented that this is a pivotal passage linking the Persian Gulf to the ocean. In excess of 20% of the world’s petroleum and gas resources transit through it. And although the principal energy exporters along this route are China, India, South Korea, and Japan, the conflict in Iran, which broadened to the Persian Gulf nations (responsible for a third of the world’s petroleum output and roughly 20% of gas production), triggered a global energy crisis. Since the end of February, global oil prices have escalated from $70 to beyond $100 per barrel. On April 30, Brent momentarily surged to a four-year zenith of $126.41.
Fuel costs at American filling stations have risen from $2.9 to $4.5 per gallon (3.7 liters). In California and Washington — to $5.80-$6.00. And this is possibly the most critical gauge for American voters. In November of this year, a third of the Senate and the entirety of the House of Representatives will be re-elected during the midterm elections to Congress. The Washington Post reports that the White House’s legal advisors are presently readying the Trump administration to collaborate with the opposing Congress, which, post-elections, may find itself under Democratic authority due to the downfall of Trump’s and Republicans’ approval ratings amidst the backdrop of the conflict in Iran and economic tribulations in the nation.
Fuel expenses in EU member nations have risen further still, in certain regions by as much as 35%. Within two months, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the European Union has expended an additional $28 billion on energy as a result of mounting prices. Italy and Germany have borne the brunt of this. Nonetheless, these represent merely direct deficits, omitting inflation, investment curtailment, and related factors. Fuel costs at Ukrainian filling stations have surged more significantly: from 40% for gasoline to 70-80% for diesel and gas. Even if oil prices dip below $100, specialists do not foresee a prompt reduction in fuel expenses at Ukrainian filling stations.
The flow of petrodollars: who earned the excess profits
Airlines are also sounding the alarm. Approximately 40% of the global jet fuel supply is obstructed in the Strait of Hormuz. European carriers are significantly reliant on provisions from Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait. As of the conclusion of April, based on official reports, Europe possessed only 6 weeks of fuel remaining. Thus, without the strait being unblocked in June, air travel within the EU could grind to a standstill.
World Bank Group economists foresee the average price of Brent crude in 2026 at $86 per barrel.
“The forecast assumes that the most severe disruptions will end in May, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually return to pre-war levels by the end of 2026. Fertilizer prices will increase by 31% in 2026. Fertilizer availability will fall to its worst level since 2022, leading to a decline in farmers’ incomes and threatening future harvests. The poorest people, who spend the largest share of their income on food and fuel, will be hit hardest, as will developing countries,” the World Bank Group economists append.
According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Strait of Hormuz is a transit passage. It is essentially fully located in the territorial waters of Oman, Iran and the UAE. Nonetheless, neither Tehran nor Washington has ratified or signed the Convention. Consequently, they each construe maritime law pertaining to the Strait of Hormuz in their own manner. On Wednesday, May 6, Tehran affirmed that, following Trump’s suspension of Operation Project Freedom, secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz is feasible within the parameters of novel procedures. However, Iran did not elaborate on the implications of this.
Ironically, the foremost beneficiaries of the global energy crisis are American oil corporations, in conjunction with Norway, which supplies its gas to Britain and the EU, countries that have forfeited gas from Qatar. Concurrently, direct US military outlays, escalating fuel costs, and inflationary pressures are not merely neutralizing the excess gains of American oil companies but are surpassing them manifold. The identical principle extends to Norway, which imposes some of the steepest retail fuel prices.
According to the International Energy Agency, in March of this year alone, Russia earned $19 billion from the export of oil and petroleum products. In total, in March-April, Moscow gained around $33 billion from energy exports (including about $15 billion in profits caused by the war in the Middle East). This was made possible by the global rise in prices and the easing of US sanctions against Russian oil. Due to this, and Iran’s barricade of the Strait of Hormuz, Japan and South Korea began purchasing Russian oil and petroleum products for the first time since 2022.
Back in mid-April, Volodymyr Zelenskyy proclaimed that “every dollar for oil from Russia is money for war,” which is directly converted into new strikes on Ukraine. European leaders have also pointed out to the Trump administration the fallacy of easing sanctions pressure on Russia. However, Washington pretends not to hear this, taking offense at European NATO allies for refusing to join the war against Iran and unblock the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon even announced the withdrawal of 5,000 American troops from Germany.
So the Ukrainian Defense Forces are single-handedly reducing Russia’s ability to export its energy resources. Due to “kinetic” sanctions — strikes on key Russian ports and refineries — Russian oil exports fell by almost 17% in April.