News Analysis
Israel is attempting a risky strategy, increasing the intensity of its attacks in an attempt to force Hezbollah to back down, while raising the chances of an aggressive response that devolves into a land war.
Exploding pagers on Tuesday. Detonating walkie-talkies on Wednesday. An unusually intense barrage of bombs on Thursday. And a huge strike on southern Beirut on Friday.
Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia, this week constitute a significant escalation in the 11-month war between the two sides. For nearly a year, Israel and Hezbollah have fought a low-level conflict, mostly along the Israeli-Lebanese border, that has gradually gathered force without ever exploding into an all-out war.
Now, Israel is attempting a riskier playbook. It has markedly increased the intensity of its attacks in an attempt to force Hezbollah to back down, while raising the chances of the opposite outcome: a more aggressive response from Hezbollah that devolves into an unbridled land war.
Israel has sabotaged Hezbollah’s communications devices, blowing up hundreds, if not thousands, of them in a widespread cyberattack. Its fighter jets have pounded southern Lebanon with rare intensity. And on Friday afternoon, they struck Beirut, the Lebanese capital, for the first time since July — killing a senior Hezbollah military commander, according to Israeli officials, and collapsing two buildings, according to Lebanese officials.
Yet, despite the escalation, the fundamental balance between the two sides appeared to remain unchanged on Friday afternoon, at least for the time being.
Israel’s moves fell short of a decisive blow, humiliating Hezbollah and spreading horror through Lebanese society, but so far failing to coerce the militia into changing course.
