What do Europeans truly think of the EU?

Polls don’t tell the full story of what EU citizens want from upcoming EU elections – and polls watchers and analysts need to dive deeper into the interplay between Europeans’ views on further EU integration and their takes on specific EU policies, write Bruno Cautrès and Thierry Chopin.

Bruno Cautrès is a political scientist at Sciences Po Paris and CNRS. Thierry Chopin is special advisor at the Jacques Delors Institute. They are authors of the study “European elections: meeting the expectations of a fragmented public opinion in a ‘new age of uncertainty’,” published on Wednesday (20 March).

The European elections in June will mark a moment of critical democratic significance on our continent. The new political balance of power on the back of the vote will impact not only the agenda of the future Commission, but more broadly the direction of European policy by 2030.

As the campaign ramps up, citizens are showing increased interest in EU matters. Across polls, we see that they express concerns and expectations that will ultimately constitute political priorities for the next five years.

Issues raised cover a wide spectrum of policy topics: purchasing power and keeping inflation in check after the energy crisis; improving health services in a post-COVID world; fighting against climate change; enhancing security and defence; and addressing immigration and asylum issues.

Ultimately, faced with the return of war on the European continent, diplomatic and trade tensions between the United States and China, and the looming climate emergency – coupled with new technological challenges – Europeans are becoming acutely aware of the need to strengthen European cooperation.

Over long periods of time, polls show there is a strong – and ever-growing – public support for common European policies in areas related to “European common goods”, particularly energy and defence.

But there is a more precise and complex story that hides behind poll numbers, if we yearn to better understand Europeans’ actual relationship with, and views towards, EU policies.

Our study “European elections: meeting the expectations of a fragmented public opinion in a “new age of uncertainty” shines a light on how citizens’ approach to high-level EU principles, which we call ‘diffuse’ support, is intrinsically linked to their evaluation and appreciation of specific EU policies – dubbed ‘specific’ support.

Understanding this subtle reality, and interplay, of drivers behind citizens’ voting behaviours is critical to politicians and policy-makers who want to better set out policy priorities for the five years to come, in line with democratic demands.

Saying yes to EU values

When it comes to ‘diffuse’ support, European public opinion is segmented primarily on geographical lines.

Eleven countries speak very favourably of further EU integration in principle. They are, in decreasing order of support: Denmark, Malta, Sweden, Ireland, Portugal, Finland, Luxembourg, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Latvia, and Poland.

Five EU countries stand in the middle, and are both somewhat favourable and unfavourable to EU integration: the western part of Germany, Croatia, Romania, Estonia, and Belgium.

Meanwhile, twelve countries are clearly looking at EU integration with critical, and rather unfavourable, eyes. These are, in ascending order of negative opinions: Italy, Hungary, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Spain, Austria, Slovenia, Cyprus, France, Slovakia, Greece, eastern part of Germany.

It’s important to note, however, that geography isn’t the only variable at play. We find that social class also plays a significant role in appreciating, and supporting, EU values: the higher the education level, the more one is inclined to support a more integrated Europe.

Diving into the specifics

There is more to the story. We found that there is a strong link between people’s views on EU integration, and the nature of policy issues they want to see implemented by European institutions.

Moreover, citizens’ positioning on EU integration are heavily influenced by their read of the state of the economy, and their (dis)trust in political decision-making, at both national and EU levels.

For European citizens most in favour of further EU integration, they cite as key policy priorities: environment and climate change, housing, education, the response to the Covid-19 crisis, support towards Ukraine, and Russian sanctions.

Meanwhile, for those most against an integrated Europe, their top policy concerns are of a different nature altogether: national economic prosperity, opposition to supporting Ukraine, and criticism towards the bloc’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The lack of support towards the EU also chimes with doubts about the reality and urgency of climate change, and the pertinence of green transition policies.

Where Europeans truly stand

From all these data, we have identified five typologies of opinions:

Citizens who are actively supportive of EU integration, accounting for approximately 10% of the voter base; those who have a fairly positive opinion (48%); indifferent citizens, whose views on the EU are neutral (10%); those with a fairly negative take (26%); and citizens who stand strongly against any EU integration (6%).

All in all, 58% of EU citizens have a positive opinion of the EU; 32% a negative one; and 10% just aren’t so sure, but tend, in light of our research, to be more open to a negative read of things – with country-by-country contrasts.

What the political make-up of the 2024-2029 European Parliament will be is too hard to call, with still three months to go before the June elections. But the new political lines, and possible alliances, will be the most critical factor to influence how, and the extent to which, EU citizens’ pressing concerns are taken into account.