Weber’s CSU and EU influence at test in German regional elections

EPP party leader Manfred Weber is battling to prevent a likely loss of the long-held dominance of his home party, the CSU, in Bavaria’s regional elections on Sunday, with results predicted to dent its power in Germany and the EU.

As the Bavarian sister party of Germany’s Christian Democrats (CDU), the CSU has governed the state of Bavaria for more than six decades. Its dominance and Bavaria’s strong economic clout have given it a powerful position in Germany and the EU – not least through Weber himself, whom the CSU has touted as ‘our man for Europe’ in its 2019 EU election campaign.

But while the party retains a tight grip on Bavarian politics, its hegemony and power are in danger of slipping as it is on course to lose votes in the second regional election in a row.

“This is the last major election in Germany before the EU elections, so the outcome can really affect the CSU’s bargaining position and its claim to power when it comes to crucial decisions for the European and national elections,” Johannes Steup, a research fellow at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, Bavaria, told Euractiv.

It is still uncertain who the CDU and CSU will choose as their joint candidate for chancellorship to challenge sitting Social-Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz in 2025, Steup noted.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz is nominally in the pole position for the top job. But while Bavaria’s prime minister and CSU leader, Markus Söder, already made an unsuccessful bid for the post in the last general election, he is still expected to become a serious contender again if the party does well in the regional election.

EU-level bargaining power in peril

More imminently, though, “a strong showing for the CSU in Bavaria would strengthen its standing in Europe and Weber’s chances to negotiate an optimal position and outcome for himself,” Steup said, adding that a good result would also reflect onto the party’s EU election campaign, ultimately boosting the party’s numbers in Brussels.

The CDU/CSU has not yet named its top candidate for the European elections. If EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen were to stand again as a CDU member, she would be an obvious candidate for the top job – all the more reason for the CSU to ensure it is well-placed in the race for the remaining parliamentary front-runners.

However, the regional elections are more likely to weaken the CSU’s power than to strengthen it, even though Söder set a low bar for success in the regional elections.

“If we [get more votes] than at the election in 2018, that would be nice,” he said in May, adding that he just wanted the current coalition government with the Free Voters (Renew Europe) to continue.

While the latter is likely, polls show that the CSU will struggle to match its 2018 result, which is disappointing as it marked the loss of its absolute majority.

The threat to the party’s previously unchallenged dominance comes from emboldened right-wing parties, including its coalition partner, the Free Voters and the far-right AfD, which bizarrely appear to have benefited from an anti-Semitism scandal surrounding the leader of the Free Voters.

“The CSU is in a bit of a legitimacy crisis, as many voters feel like it has failed to provide convincing and cohesive political solutions,” Lars Rensmann, a political scientist from the University of Passau, told Euractiv.

A bridge back to Bavaria for Weber?

Another underwhelming result for Söder would raise questions about his future and trigger some internal reshuffling in the medium to long term, which could even lure Weber back to Bavaria.

“Weber is the deputy leader of the CSU and was part of its manifesto committee during the early stage of his European career, so he is very well connected and popular within the party,” Steup noted.

In 2018, he was tipped to become the successor of the departing leader, Horst Seehofer. While initially showing some interest, he ultimately prioritised his unsuccessful bid to head the Commission.

A spokesperson for Weber told Euractiv that the EPP president remains exclusively committed to his role in the European institutions.

But with Weber unlikely to move up the career ladder after being denied the Commission presidency in 2019, Bavaria’s top job could one day become interesting for him.

“[For] there to be an immediate change in the leadership (…), Söder would have to do very badly in the regional elections, which is not likely,” Steup qualified.

(Nick Alipour | Euractiv.de)