Think tank projects populist surge in 2024 EU elections

Anti-European, populist and far-right parties are expected to get a significant number of votes in the June European Parliament elections, according to a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) released on Wednesday (24 January).

“The results of our analysis should serve as a wake-up call for European policymakers about what is at stake in the 2024 European Parliament elections. The implications of this vote are far reaching for the geopolitical direction of the European Council and European
Commission from 2024 onwards,” the report reads.

Anti-European populist parties are forecast to top the polls in nine EU member states, including Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia, according to the think tank’s latest projections.

The latest polling would see them score second or third in Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden.

As the European People’s Party (EPP) and Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) continue their trend of losing seats, the largest gains are expected to be made by the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the populist, radical right Identity and Democracy group (ID), according to the latest ECFR projections.

Europe Elects also predicted gains on the right, forecasting ID will become the fourth-largest bloc in the EU House.

Overall, political scientists Simon Hix and Dr Kevin Cunningham, who wrote the report for this independent and pan-European think tank, predict the balance of power will shift to the right in the European Parliament.

Almost half the seats held by MEPs may fall outside the “super grand coalition” of the conservative EPP, centre-left S&D, and centrist Renew Europe, whose joint share is seen decreasing from 60% to 54%, according to the study’s projection. The authors warn this might not be enough to guarantee a centrist win.

The leftist and centre-left coalitions are expected to lose seats, and even if they secure support from RE, they will only have 45% of the seats in Parliament — a 5% decrease from their current share. The centre-right coalition of the EPP, RE, and ECR might also lose seats, but a populist-right coalition of the EPP, ECR, and ID will likely gain seats and increase their representation to 49%.

Additionally, there are 28 parties whose group identification is unknown — the largest being Italy’s Fratelli D’Italia, Italy’s Five Star Movement (which may join the Left), and Hungary’s Fidesz — but most of those parties are predicted to join groups to the right of EPP if they do not remain unattached.

This might mean the creation of a right-wing majority coalition in Parliament for the first time since its inception — which would have implications for European policymaking, ECFR Senior Fellow Susi Dennison told Euractiv.

“In key areas such as migration, climate, support for Ukraine, some of the consensuses, which have held in European politics over the past five years under the current parliament, will become more difficult to push through,” Dennison said.

For example, on matters of environmental policy, centre-left voices have historically triumphed, but only by narrow margins. The EU’s Green Deal and pro-climate action policies may suffer with a rightward shift.

Dennison said with the predicted makeup of Parliament, the vote in favour of the nature restoration law passed by Parliament last July, which was already challenging to get through, would not pass.

“It’s the combination of more votes for further right groups and more willingness of the centre to cooperate with the right that is going to produce the change,” Dennison said.

Pro-Russian shift?

Concerning Ukraine, Parliament might see more EU lawmakers with pro-Russian stances. In terms of fiscal policy, there might be a greater push for less centralisation of these policies.

The authors predict that the voting patterns on most policies are expected to remain constant.

“While we are not going to see a sea change in terms of the makeup of the European Parliament, what we will see is an important shift to the right,” Dennison said. “This will be an augmentation of the power of the far right parties rather than something kind of radically new.”

While these results might be a symptom of a growing populist trend in Europe, they might also be precursors to other national elections. In key member states France, Germany, and Austria, right-wing groups picking up MEPs might forecast a similar trend for results in the countries’ upcoming elections.

Personal Trump connections

According to Dennison, the projections also yield clues about the next EU leadership’s potential relationship with the United States.

“I think clearly if you have a Trump II administration and the further-right European Parliament, there will be very little incentive from the point of view of the transatlantic relationship for Europeans to do anything but take their foot off the pedal when it comes to climate action and take a very nationalist, closed-border approach when it comes to immigration, Dennison said.

Asked whether the US would protect European allies under a second Trump administration, Dennison said that further-right leaders like France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen and Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orbán might leverage their personal connections with Trump to guarantee security for Europe.

Dennison said, she thinks “that they will double down on their personal ties with the Trump administration to ensure that they’re the ones that can deliver the kind of relationship with the US that [guarantees] security for their votes.”

A second Trump administration is not the only eventuality for which Europe needs to prepare, Dennison warned.

Witnessing the U.S. Congress’ challenges pushing support for Ukraine and a resolution on the Israel-Gaza conflict, she added that a second Biden administration might also see Europe needing to operate independently on the world stage.

[Edited by Alice Taylor/Nathalie Weatherald/Zoran Radosavljevic]