Although most analysts focus on the fight between the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and the opposition Civic Coalition (KO) bloc ahead of the Polish elections, PiS internal surveys estimate that the electoral performance of the “Third Way” – a small coalition of parties formed last April – may ultimately be the game changer.
According to the latest poll by the IBRiS Institute for Onet news outlet, PiS is in the best position to secure its third consecutive term in power, estimating it will get 35.1% of the votes. KO, a bloc founded by Donald Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform (PO), comes second with 27%.
However, PiS’ internal surveys suggest that the electoral performance of the Third Way will be crucial: should the bloc fail to pass the election threshold, which is 8% for multi-party blocs, PiS will have a big chance to secure an absolute majority in the parliament.
“In our daily surveys, the support for the Third Way fluctuates around the electoral threshold”, which means that if it fails to enter the parliament, “then it will be enough for us to get 38-39% to have an independent majority,” a source from PiS told Onet.
If PiS does not secure a majority, it must seek coalition partners to form a majority government.
The most probable candidate is the rightist Confederation party, which ranks between the third and fifth position in polls, depending on the survey.
The Third Way is the new bloc formed as an alliance of two parties: centre-green Poland 2050 and centrist, formerly agrarian Polish People’s Party (PSL).
It positions itself as an alternative for the two main competing parties, PiS and PO, unlike those two, it is uninvolved in mutual partisan conflicts.
Considering the role the Third Way may play in the elections, PiS refocused its campaign and aims to polarise the voters so that they vote for either PiS or KO rather than for smaller blocs, according to the source.
The Third Way’s results in the official polls are similar to those from PiS’ surveys. According to the IBRiS poll, the bloc enjoys the support of 10.4% of the voters, whereas another poll by Ipsos Institute for private TOK FM radio and OKO.press investigative journalism outlet shows 8%.
German minority the kingmaker?
Moreover, some of the latest polls suggest an interesting scenario in which the majority is decided by one mandate. Consequently, it is the German minority, which has one seat in the parliament, that may decide PiS’ future.
The German minority is the only one that decided to benefit from the Polish law exempting national minorities’ election committees from having to exceed the 5% electoral threshold.
(Aleksandra Krzysztoszek | Euractiv.pl)
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