The devil Europe knows

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Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition, we look at the first round of Turkey’s presidential elections, where President Erdoğan faces a rival who supports Turkey’s EU integration. That might not necessarily be what EU leaders want to hear.

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Editor’s Take: The devil Europe knows

Change is in the air. After nearly two decades of dominance, Turkish President Recep Erdoğan faces the possibility of election defeat. Independent opinion polling suggests that Erdoğan is trailing the main opposition candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, of the Republican People’s Party.

The prospect of a change in management makes Sunday’s first round of presidential elections arguably as important as any other national polls in the EU. It is certainly Erdoğan’s biggest test yet.

The Turkish strongman has presided over nearly a decade of economic decline and a sustained assault on civil liberties and press freedom.

But his reign has brought some important benefits to the EU.

With Erdogan in charge, the EU does not have to seriously address the thorny question of whether Turkey might ever become a member.

Most EU member states regard the prospect of Turkish EU accession with an almost vampiric fear. In the process, Turkey has become a useful buffer state for the EU, a fellow NATO ally that asks relatively little of Brussels.

However, the relationship between Ankara and Brussels could radically change if Kılıçdaroğlu wins.

Certainly, that is what the opposition leader wants.

Kılıçdaroğlu‘s officials say their candidate fully supports Turkey’s full accession to the European Union and would seek major new investment deals with European and other firms in a bid to bolster a Turkish economy that has become increasingly weak under Erdoğan.

“We fully support European integration and we see ourselves aligned with the European values, rights and freedoms,” Saadetin Kilic, Kılıçdaroğlu‘s chief adviser, told EURACTIV last month.

That might sound exciting to those who are most enthusiastic about EU enlargement but a change to the status quo could create a potential headache for leaders in Brussels and across European capitals.

The main form of EU-Turkey relations since 2016 has become the EU’s €6 billion ‘cash for migrants’ deal with Ankara.

This arrangement has been so successful in keeping hundreds of thousands of refugees and economic migrants from the Middle East and North Africa away from Europe that it has become the main model for the bloc’s migration control.

The European Commission is pursuing similar – if less lucrative – agreements with Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. The fact that Turkey under Erdogan has become increasingly repressive and authoritarian is no bad thing when it comes to keeping migrants from crossing into the EU,

That deal could become less workable under a new president who wants to rebuild and reshape EU relations.

There was some consternation when Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama voiced his support for an Erdoğan victory on Sunday. An autocrat he may be, but many in the EU may regard Erdoğan as a case of ‘better the devil they know’.

Capitals-in-brief

Dutch entities that terminated Gazprom contracts to be compensated. Dutch entities that unnecessarily terminated their Gazprom contracts due to government pressure to comply with EU sanctions will be reimbursed entirely, Climate and Energy Minister Rob Jetten (D66/Renew) wrote in a letter to parliament on Wednesday.

Italy, France clash over immigration, again. The head of Emmanuel Macron’s party described Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s immigration policy as inhumane following a string of insults from the French side. This has angered Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini while Meloni focuses on turning the page.

In the meantime, deaths in the Mediterranean reached almost 1,000 in 2023, according to the International organisation for migration statistics shared on Wednesday (10 May).

Strasbourg court backs Finnish authorities in Jehova data collection case. Finnish authorities did not infringe the religious rights of Jehova’s witnesses by labelling their data collection practices during house visits as illegal, the Strasbourg-based human rights court ruled after a decade-long back-and-forth.

Spain to adopt urgent water supply measures amidst ‘historic’ drought. The government is set to approve urgent measures to ease the severe economic impact of the historic drought in the country, Spain’s Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera confirmed ahead of an extraordinary government meeting on Thursday.

Inside the institutions

AI Act moves ahead in EU Parliament with key committee vote. The European Parliament’s leading parliamentary committees have green-lighted the AI Act in a vote on Thursday (11 May), paving the way for plenary adoption in mid-June.

EU launches first round of tenders to jointly buy gas. The European Commission launched on Wednesday (10 May) the first round of tenders for gas sellers to link with EU buyers on the joint gas purchasing platform to help maintain security of supply and tackle high energy prices.

EU Court rules against Commission in Lufthansa state aid case. The General Court of the EU announced on Wednesday (10 May) that the European Commission was mistaken in permitting Germany to provide state aid to airline Lufthansa during the COVID-19 pandemic, legally annulling the decision.

European Parliament calls for new sources of revenue for EU budget. EU lawmakers expressed concerns over the EU budget’s capacity to repay funds borrowed for the coronavirus recovery plan without new sources of income, calling on the European Commission to consider new streams of revenue.

European Parliament divided in debate over new debt rules. In a parliamentary debate on the European Commission’s proposal for new fiscal rules, EU lawmakers offered views diverging widely along both ideological and national lines, putting the Parliament’s ability to make its voice heard in the upcoming negotiations in doubt.

EU countries blocking agreement on ecodesign law amid dispute over unsold textiles. Several EU countries are blocking agreement on a new law to promote sustainable product design in an unfolding dispute over whether to include a ban on destroying unsold textiles.

EU lawmakers call for more inclusive school canteen options. Products available in school canteens should take into account children’s dietary restrictions such as food intolerances and allergies, which may include plant-based alternatives, lawmakers said – an issue which has proved divisive among stakeholders.

What we are reading

EURACTIV joins Mediahuis group: Why media sector consolidation is necessary, writes EURACTIV founder Christophe Leclercq.

China’s raids foreign firms hurt its own interests, contends the Financial Times.

Frontex will continue its operations over the Black Sea after a Russian SU 35 fighter jet intercepted its Polish patrol plane, Nikolaj Nielsen writes for EU Observer.

First there was Brexit. Now there is Ukraine. The war has helped Britain and the EU find each other again, Pedro Serrano and 27 EU heads of mission argue in The Guardian.

The next week in politics

The G7 Summit will take place next week in Japan (Hiroshima) from 19 to 21 May.

Eurogroup next Monday (15 May), Education, Youth, Culture and Sport Council on Monday and Tuesday (15-16 May), and Economic and Financial Affairs Council on Tuesday.

MEPs will be busy with activities outside the EU Parliament premises (the so-called “green week”).

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]