Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in the US, bringing to his interlocutors what he calls a “truly just” peace plan. But let’s face it: peace is not around the corner.
At Zelenskyy’s request, a Summit on Peace in Ukraine was held in Switzerland on 15 and 16 June, 2024.
The Russian Government was not invited, which already indicated that the summit could not achieve much. In response, President Vladimir Putin offered his terms for a ceasefire and peace negotiations, which Kyiv and its allies described as a request based on Ukraine’s capitulation.
At the close of the Swiss peace summit, Zelenskyy said Ukraine would be prepared to hold peace talks with Russia if it withdrew from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. This, conversely, sounds like a Russian capitulation. The Swiss Government said it was “convinced that Russia must be included in this process as it progresses” and that “a peace process without Russia is inconceivable.”
Zelenskyy plans a second Swiss-type peace summit in November, signalling that he will invite Moscow’s representatives this time, but Russia has already said it will not attend.
Emboldened by recent Russian gains on the battlefield, modest as they may be, Putin continues to call for victory. But first and foremost, Putin will wait patiently for the 5 November US elections, hoping that Trump, if elected, will end this war before his inauguration on 20 January 2025, as the latter has said.
A peace brokered by Trump would largely be on Putin’s terms, much like the Minsk agreements he negotiated in 2014 with Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel. Such agreements only freeze a conflict until Russia decides to reopen it.
If Kamala Harris gets the presidency, it will be a different scenario. But nobody knows if she will stick to the prudent policy of the Biden administration, embodied by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, not to cross red lines. She may choose to provide Ukraine with the weapons needed to put the Kremlin in jeopardy, and nudge the world closer to nuclear war.
There are many reasons why peace in Ukraine is difficult to imagine. Many Ukrainians say – and they know the Russians inside out – that it is not in Putin’s interest to end this war, especially if it remains a low-intensity conflict. Putin simply needs this conflict to stay in power.
Ending the war would unleash terrible questions Putin wants to avoid. Why did he start the war? Was the loss of so many Russian lives justified?
But first and foremost, brokering peace in Ukraine is a huge responsibility. Whatever the agreement, it will shape international relations for decades to come, much as the Peace of Westphalia of 1648, the Treaty of Paris of 1814 that ended the Napoleonic wars, or the Yalta agreement of February 1945, which divided our continent into spheres of influence, giving Stalin the whole of Eastern Europe.
If the Western community gives Putin what he wants, and everything returns to business as usual, concepts such as sovereignty, territorial integrity and respect for international law will become a thing of the past.
Putin would be vindicated and even glorified by countries from the Global South for having changed the world’s order. It will be open bar for all across the world, who feel more powerful than their neighbours, to seize the territories they covet.
NATO would be put under a terrible stress test. Putin and his successors would gather strength and set foot in the same space that the USSR conquered under the Yalta agreement as soon as circumstances allow. As he has said, Russia’s borders don’t end anywhere.
Nuclear proliferation will grow exponentially across the world, given that only the nuclear deterrent appears to be a credible guarantee for a country’s security.
Last but not least, the European Union, which French President Emmanuel Macron said was mortal, would be pronounced dead.
This is why the Ukraine peace, whenever it will be possible, should be harsh on the Russian aggressor. Strangely, the Ukrainians seem to be the only ones to understand it.
The Roundup
The European Commission launched consultations at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Monday to counter an ongoing investigation by Chinese authorities into the compliance of EU subsidies with global trade regulations.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party (SPD) won the state elections in Brandenburg on Sunday, outpacing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and striking a blow to the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
EU member states have consistently failed to fully implement rulings from both the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) and the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU), a report has found, undermining democracy and the rule of law in the EU.
The United Nations General Assembly adopted a “Pact for the Future” on Sunday (22 September), which UN Secretary-General António Guterres described as a landmark agreement “towards more effective, inclusive, networked multilateralism.”
Newly-appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier presented his government late on Saturday (21 September), largely maintaining the political course of previous pro-Macron administrations while making concessions to the far-right Rassemblement National (RN).
Source: euractiv.com
